Neither the U.S. nor Israel seem close to ending their attacks on Iran as the war stretches into its 16th day. U.S. President Donald Trump says he is not yet prepared to make a deal with Tehran while Israeli officials say there are still “thousands of targets” to be hit.
In an interview with NBC News Saturday night, Trump said he wants Tehran to offer a better “deal” before he would agree to ending hostilities.
“Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” the president told the network in a 30-minute phone call. He added that the terms offered would have to be “very solid.”
The U.S. leader, however, declined to say what conditions he is seeking.
“I don’t want to say that to you,” Trump stated, while acknowledging that Iran would have to completely abandon any nuclear ambitions as part of any agreement.
Israel, meanwhile, told CNN it plans for at least three more weeks of its campaign in Iran.
“We have thousands of targets ahead,” IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin told the cable outlet. “We are ready, in coordination with our U.S. allies, with plans through at least the Jewish holiday of Passover, about three weeks from now. And we have deeper plans for even three weeks beyond that.”
Defrin added that the IDF is “not working according to a stopwatch, or a timetable, but rather to achieve our goals” which are to “weaken the Iranian regime severely.”
At the same time, Chris Wright, Trump’s Energy Secretary, has also said the war will end within the next few weeks:
“I think that this conflict will certainly come to the end in the next few weeks – could be sooner than that. But the conflict will come to the end in the next few weeks, and we’ll see a rebound in supplies and a pushing down in prices after that,”
While another three weeks of war would roughly fit into Trump’s previous statements that the conflict could last as long as five weeks, this is such a fluid situation that it is extremely difficult to make predictions about timelines.
Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to pound targets in Iran, including the continued use of bomber sorties.
The biggest change in targeting came from the U.S. attacking Kharg Island. This is the epicenter of Iran’s oil exporting that sits roughly 20 miles off Iran’s northern coastline along the Persian Gulf.
CENTCOM posted:
“Last night, U.S. forces carried out a precise and wide-ranging strike on Kharg Island in Iran. This strike destroyed naval mine storage depots, missile storage bunkers, and numerous other military sites. U.S. forces succeeded in targeting more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, while preserving the oil infrastructure.”
Just a day ago, TWZ Editor-In-Chief Tyler Rogoway stated this would be at the top of the list of targets intended for U.S. Marines heading to the region, as well as one of the smaller islands closer to the Strait of Hormuz, if indeed the Marines from USS Tripoli and its MEU are indeed used. According to one tracking source, USS Tripoli is currently sailing through the South China Sea, moving fast to join U.S. forces amassed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.
The strikes took out the island’s airfield as well as air defenses and other targets that were military related. They were not focused on the energy transfer services the island provides. These strikes would be critical to preparing the island for future operations.
After the attack, Trump wrote on Truth Social:
“We totally demolished Kharg Island, but we may hit it a few more times just for fun.”
We will be talking a lot more about Kharg Island in the near future.
We are also seeing U.S. aircraft operating over Iranian population centers at lower level, pointing to the degraded state of Iranian air defenses. The video below shows a Super Hornet over Chabahar, which still is a coastal city, so it’s not like the aircraft is seen deep inside Iran, and this seaside town, which is near the border with Pakistan on Iran’s southern shore, was heavily struck during the opening stages of the conflict:
Israel also remains highly active with strikes in Iran:
Israel claims about a third of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers are still usable. This appears to be a similar figure floated over the past week.
Five U.S. aerial refueling tankers were struck by an Iranian ballistic missile that landed at Print Sulan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Trump, however, pushed back on the reported claims about the KC-135s, calling them “fake news” and that “Four of the five had virtually no damage and are already back in service.”
Claims about these tankers follow a March 12 mishap that put out of action one KC-135 and destroyed another with six airmen onboard. On Saturday, the Pentagon announced the names of the airmen killed in the above-mentioned incident when two KC-135s reportedly collided with each other.
Maj. John A. Klinner, 33, of Auburn, Ala.
Capt. Ariana G. Savino, 31, of Covington, Wash.
Tech. Sgt. Ashley B. Pruitt, 34, of Bardstown, Ky.
Capt. Seth R. Koval, 38, of Mooresville, Ind.
Capt. Curtis J. Angst, 30, of Wilmington, Ohio
Tech. Sgt. Tyler H. Simmons, 28, of Columbus, Ohio.
A drone attack on the U.S. Embassy in the Green Zone in Iraq destroyed a Giraffe 3D radar system that would be an important component used in the protection of the facility from incoming drone strikes. It isn’t clear if this was a near-field or long-range attack, although a near-field one seems most likely. Regardless, targeting of critical radar systems has been a key component of Iran’s retaliation campaign.
A report from Axios claims Putin said he would move Iran’s enriched uranium to Russia as part of a deal that could see the end of the war, but Trump rejected the offer. This needs to be taken as unconfirmed at this time, but Russia taking the material has long been floated as a potential part of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran. Considering Russia’s tight relationship with Iran, which has only gotten more intense since the war in Ukraine kicked off, and the fact that Russia is not exactly a friendly country to the U.S. and the West, skepticism here is not illogical.
The Economist has a report that states the damage to the world economy is mounting from the closure of the strait and a major further spike in oil prices could send the globe into recession.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump ignored advice from Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine about the damage Iran could inflict on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Wall Street Journal story came a day after War Secretary Pete Hegseth decried as “fake news” assertions that the Trump administration underestimated the Iran war’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday said that the country’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, “is in good health condition and manages the country strongly.”
Araghchi’s comments come two days after War Secretary Pete Hegseth said Khamenei was wounded and “likely disfigured.”
Regardless of Mojtaba Khamenei’s current condition, his later father had misgivings about his son replacing him, according to CBS News. An analysis by the U.S. intelligence community “showed Khamenei was wary of Mojtaba taking power because he was perceived as not very bright, and was viewed as unqualified to be leader, according to sources,” the network claimed.
The IRGC is unsurprisingly stating they are actively trying to kill Prime Minister Netanyahu. This should come as no surprise, but the message is certainly overt.
Iranian ballistic missiles are still piercing Israel’s air defenses:
There is a report that says Israel is running low on interceptors. Israel has said the report is not accurate. It would be of no surprise that Israel is running low of these advanced weapons, especially after just eight months since the 12-Day War. This issue has been highlighted in multiple reports in the months following that operation. If this is indeed the case, and we cannot confirm it is at this time, it will put more pressure on U.S. THAAD and SM-3 interceptor systems and the stockpile overall.
Iran continues to target gulf allies’ oil production facilities:
An Iranian drone attack on an oil refinery in Erbil, Iraq, caused a major fire:
A video has been released showing Iraqi militia FPV drones attacking Baghdad International Airport. In the clip, it shows two flying around the facility for a prolonged period of time before diving into a soft shelter and a hangar.
President Trump says that Iran wants to make a deal, but the terms aren’t good and that he doesn’t even know if Iran’s newly appointed leader is alive.
Trump appears to be looking to build a coalition to reopen the Strait, including long-time European allies. That ask does conflict with his previous statements on Truth Social about the war already being won and not needing at least one key ally, the UK. At the same time, the UK has opened its bases to U.S. bomber deployments. Trump has also commented that the “last person he needs help from is Zelensky” in regard to Ukraine sending capabilities to the region to defend against drones.
Zelensky, for his part, told CNN that Russia is supplying Iran with Shahed drones and is aiding Iran in targeting U.S. assets in the Middle East. Though Iran initially supplied these weapons to Russia for its war on Ukraine, Moscow has made numerous improvements since as we have frequently noted.
While unofficial, this basic chart can be used as an informal data point in terms of drone and missile launches out of Iran. It shows drone and missile launches had leveled off for a number of days, but drone launches have spiked a bit in the last day or so. Clearly, Iran continues to execute standoff launches that are doing significant damage over two weeks into the conflict.
UPDATE: 1:05 EST –
Araghchi disputes Trump’s claim that Iran wants to negotiate an end to the war.
“We never asked for a ceasefire or negotiations,” the Iranian foreign minister told Face The Nation Sunday morning. “We are ready to defend ourselves as long as it takes.”
The decision to appoint Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father was a signal that the regime wants to maintain control of the country, former CIA operative told Face The Nation.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil from an unprecedented stockpile release will be made available immediately in Asia,” Bloomberg News reported. Buyers there “are clamoring to replace barrels lost to war-related disruptions in the Middle East,” the outlet noted.
Though UKMTO reports that there have been no confirmed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman or Arabian Gulf in the past 72 hours, the situation there remains “at a critical level due to recent attack patterns, continued navigation interference, and persistent operational disruption, to include port facilities, across the region.”
The heavy consumption of MICA air-to-air missiles used by French Air Force Rafale pilots to intercept Iranian Shahed drones over the UAE is creating tensions in Paris, according to the French La Tribune news outlet.
“A crisis meeting is convened Tuesday by Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron to find solutions to maintain capacities over time,” the publication reported.
Contact the authors: tyler@twz.com
howard@twz.com