As the conflict between Israel and Iran entered its seventh day, U.S. President Donald Trump today signaled that he’ll decide on whether to order the U.S. military to strike Iranian nuclear facilities within the next two weeks. That decision will ultimately depend on whether or not Tehran enters into talks over ending its nuclear weapons program.
In a statement relayed through White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Trump said: “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.”
Yesterday, Trump was reportedly moving closer to getting directly involved in the fight. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump “told senior aides late Tuesday that he approved of attack plans for Iran, but was holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program.” The publication cited three people familiar with the deliberations.
It’s always possible that this is a ruse and the decision has already been made, similar to how Israel launched its attack prior to scheduled talks with the U.S., but we have no evidence of that at this time.
You can catch up on our coverage of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, designed to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons and dismantle its long-range weapons capabilities, here.
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Israel continued to strike targets at dozens of locations in Iran overnight, with perhaps the most prominent being the Arak heavy water reactor. The damage caused by the attack is revealed by satellite imagery of the aftermath, including a direct hit on the large dome-like structure at the facility that covers the reactor itself.
Iranian state television reported that there was “no radiation danger whatsoever” and that the facility had already been evacuated before the attack. Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that the facility was still under construction and contained no nuclear material.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had warned people to evacuate the area around the heavy water reactor in the regions of Arak and Khondab a few hours before it launched its attack.
Located around 150 miles southwest of Tehran, the Arak facility produces the heavy water used to cool nuclear reactors. As a byproduct of this process, the plan also produces plutonium, which can potentially be used in nuclear weapons. This would offer another route to procuring a nuclear warhead, other than enriched uranium.
Footage released by the IDF showing the strike on the Arak facility indicates that the reactor was attacked using a standoff weapon involving man-in-the-loop guidance. Likely candidate weapons for such a strike include a Delilah air-launched cruise missile, a Popeye air-to-surface missile, or a SPICE 2000 guided bomb fitted with a wing kit.
Back in 2015, Iran agreed to redesign the Arak facility to relieve proliferation concerns. Iran also agreed to sell off its heavy water to the West, while the United Kingdom helped Iran modify the Arak reactor to limit the amount of plutonium it produces.
After the strike, Israel said it was still concerned the facility could be used to produce plutonium.
The IDF said in a statement: “The strike targeted the component intended for plutonium production, in order to prevent the reactor from being restored and used for nuclear weapons development.”
As well as hitting Arak, the IDF said it had also carried out a further attack on the nuclear enrichment site at Natanz, as well as air defense batteries, missile storage sites, radars, and other sites.
Israel has provided its sternest threat yet to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after Soroka hospital in southern Israel was hit during an Iranian missile attack this morning. Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz said Khamenei “can no longer be allowed to exist.”
“Khamenei openly declares that he wants Israel destroyed — he personally gives the order to fire on hospitals,” Katz told journalists in Holon near Tel Aviv. “He considers the destruction of the state of Israel to be a goal.”
“These are some of the most serious war crimes — and Khamenei will be held accountable for his actions,” Katz said.
Katz added that he had ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to destabilize the “Ayatollah regime,” with instructions to ramp up strikes on strategic-related targets in Tehran and the power infrastructure in the Iranian capital.
Soroka Hospital was struck after Iran fired approximately 30 ballistic missiles at Israel on Thursday morning, according to IDF assessments.
Footage posted to social media showed the aftermath of the attack that hit Soroka Hospital in the Israeli city of Beersheba. People could be seen running through corridors filled with dust and debris, with doctors standing outside amid wreckage from the building. Israeli media aired footage of blown-out windows and heavy black smoke.
“A direct hit has been reported at Soroka Hospital in Beersheba, southern Israel. More details to follow,” the Israeli Foreign Ministry posted on X.
A spokesperson for the hospital reported “damage to the hospital and extensive damage in various areas. We are currently assessing the damage, including injuries. We ask the public not to come to the hospital at this time.”
Formally known as the Soroka Medical Center, the hospital has over 1,000 beds and provides services to the approximately one million residents of Israel’s south, as well as soldiers wounded in Gaza.
A hospital statement said several parts of the medical center were damaged and that the emergency room was treating several minor injuries. The hospital was closed to all new patients except for life-threatening cases. AP reports that many hospitals in Israel activated emergency plans in the past week, converting underground parking to hospital floors and moving patients underground, especially those who are on ventilators or are difficult to move quickly.
Israel’s Magen David Adom rescue service said that a directive has been issued to reduce the number of people on the floor that was hit in the hospital. The service said that there had been no hazardous materials released and that patients were now being moved to other hospitals in southern Israel.
Haim Bublil, a local police commander, told reporters that several people were lightly wounded in the strike on the hospital. He said there was a fire in a six-story building that was hard to access, and that rescuers were still searching various buildings.
Tehran has denied that it deliberately targeted the hospital.
The “main target” of the missile attack was the “large [IDF] command and intelligence headquarters and the military intelligence camp in the Gav-Yam Technology Park”, the Iranian state-run news agency IRNA reported. IRNA said that the facility is located next to the hospital.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel will exact the full price from the “tyrants” in Tehran.
“This morning, Iran’s ‘terrorist tyrants’ launched missiles at Soroka hospital in Beersheba and at a civilian population in central Israel,” Netanyahu said in a post on X.
Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel said the strike on the hospital was “deliberate” and “criminal.”
“Iran just hit Soroka Hospital in Beersheba with a ballistic missile. Not a military base. A hospital. This is the main medical center for Israel’s entire Negev region. Deliberate. Criminal. Civilian target. The world must speak out,” Haskel wrote on X.
Other locations that were targeted by the latest barrage of Iranian missiles included Holon and Ramat Gan in central Israel. In Holon, emergency services said that one person had been seriously wounded and another two dozen left with minor injuries, according to a report in The Times of Israel.
Explosions were also heard over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. In Tel Aviv, a missile hit a high-rise building and several other residential buildings in at least two locations, according to the Magen David Adom rescue service. At least 240 people were wounded in the various attacks around Israel, AP reports, citing Israel’s Health Ministry.
There are suggestions that Iran could be poised to attack Israeli nuclear facilities. Reports in the Israeli media state that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued an evacuation order for Israeli citizens living close to the Dimona nuclear plant.
Another option available to Iran, and one which we analyzed in the past, involves closing down the Strait of Hormuz, the marine artery through which around 20 percent of daily global oil exports pass. The option was raised by a member of the Iranian Parliament National Security Committee presidium, Behnam Saeedi, who was quoted by the semi-official Mehr news agency.
Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz to traffic in retaliation for Western pressure, and shipping sources say that commercial ships are avoiding Iran’s waters around the strait.
Iran continues to warn off the United States from more actively supporting Israel in the conflict, which could include kinetic attacks.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that if the United States wants to become more involved in the conflict on behalf of Israel, Iran would be forced to defend itself.
“If the United States wants to actively enter the field in favour of the Zionist regime, Iran will have to use its tools to both teach a lesson to aggressors and defend its national security and national interests,” Gharibabadi said. “Naturally, our military decision makers have all the necessary options on the table.”
Gharibabadi claimed that Iran never wanted a war, and never sought to expand any conflict.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei provided similar warnings.
Khamenei said Israel had made a “huge mistake” by starting the war and warned the United States against becoming involved. “The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage,” he said in a statement read out by a presenter on state TV.
Were the U.S. military to become involved in the conflict with a kinetic campaign, the deeply buried Iranian nuclear facility in Fordow has been widely earmarked as a target. This was reinforced today in an article co-written by former Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
“Israel has done most of the work. Only Trump can finish it,” Gallant said. He added that the facility in Fordow remains intact and only the U.S. military can destroy it. “Only the U.S. can do this, and only President Trump can order it,” he added.
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi have spoken by phone several times since the conflict began last Friday to reach a diplomatic solution to end the crisis. This was reported by Reuters, which cited three unnamed diplomats.
According to the same diplomats, Araqchi said that Tehran would not return to negotiations unless Israel stopped the attacks.
The talks apparently included discussion of a U.S. proposal offered to Tehran in which a regional consortium would be set up to enrich uranium outside Iran. Tehran has so far rejected that offer.
Other international efforts to try and bring the conflict to an end have involved German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has previously voiced support for Israeli military attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Merz reportedly had a phone call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in which he called for moderation in Israel’s campaign against Iran. This was reported by Reuters today, citing an unnamed German government source.
This is a developing story. Stay with The War Zone for updates.
Update, 4:00 pm Eastern:
American Airlines has suspended any further flights to Doha, in Qatar, its only destination in the Middle East. The airline cites safety and security concerns due to the escalating tensions in the region.
“American Airlines has made adjustments to its Doha, Qatar (DOH) operation, temporarily suspending flights between DOH and Philadelphia (PHL) until Sunday, June 22,” the airline said in a statement. “We will continue to monitor the situation with safety and security top of mind and will adjust our operation further as needed.”
Meanwhile, United Airlines has suspended its daily flight to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.
Quoting the Israeli Defense Ministry, The Times of Israel reports that several cargo aircraft carrying arms and other military equipment for the service touched down in Israel today. The ministry said the delivery was “part of efforts to strengthen operational continuity and support all the IDF’s needs, both for achieving the goals of the war and for improving readiness and stockpiles.”
The same report notes that, since the start of Operation Rising Lion, Iran, 14 cargo aircraft with equipment for the IDF have landed in Israel. Most of these aircraft have flown from the United States.
The White House has reportedly refuted claims made in a report in The Guardian that the United States has doubts about whether its arsenal of bunker-busting munitions would be sufficient to destroy the Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow. At the same time, officials apparently confirm that no options have been taken off the table for potential attacks on hardened targets like these. That would include tactical nuclear weapons, too.
The Guardian report had claimed that President Trump was not fully convinced that the 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker-buster bomb — America’s most powerful conventional munition — would effectively eliminate Fordow, contributing to him holding off on ordering airstrikes.
The U.S. assessment of Iran’s nuclear program has not changed since March, when the director of national intelligence told lawmakers that Tehran has large amounts of enriched uranium but has not made a decision to rush toward building an atomic bomb, according to the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee and a source with knowledge of the matter.
Comments by President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have painted a different picture, suggesting that Iran is racing toward creating a nuclear weapon.
Update, 4:30 pm Eastern:
There is now some debate at the very highest levels about exactly how far Iran has progressed with its efforts to produce a functional nuclear weapon.
Yesterday, President Trump said that Iran was “a few weeks” from having a nuclear weapon, while Prime Minister Netanyahu recently talked about Iran pursuing a “secret plan” to build a bomb within months.
Meanwhile, Senator Mark, a Virginia Democrat and the vice chair of the Intelligence Committee, has suggested that Trump’s prognosis is very different from that of U.S. intelligence officials.
“So far, at least, the intelligence community has stood by its conclusion that Iran is not moving towards a nuclear weapon. They were enriching additional uranium, but they were not weaponizing that yet, and that [decision] was left with the supreme leader,” Warner said, in words reported by NBC.
Japan has confirmed that it will forward-deploy a pair of Kawasaki C-2 transport aircraft to Djibouti to prepare for evacuating Japanese nationals from Israel and Iran, if required.
Japanese Minister of Defense Gen. Nakatani said today that the C-2s will be on standby in the northeast African country, where they have been dispatched at the request of Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya.
There are claims out of Israel that threatening phone calls have been made to various Israeli political figures over the past week, presumed to have originated in or been inspired by Iran.
“The callers, speaking in Hebrew, in some cases appeared to know exactly who they were calling as they vowed Iran would destroy Israel with missile attacks,” a report in The Times of Israel said.
The photo in the tweet embedded below, said to be taken today at Prestwick Airport, Scotland, shows four of seven U.S. Air Force C-17A Globemaster III transports on the ground there as U.S. military air assets — tankers, transports, and fighters — continue to flow into Europe and then move forward to the Middle East.
Update, 4:50 pm Eastern:
Purported footage from Iran indicates that Israeli strikes on the capital have resumed as night falls on the country.
Update, 5:45 pm Eastern:
Amid calls from Israel and the United States for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” the role of Russia in the ongoing crisis has been somewhat unclear. While Moscow has expressed concern about the fate of Iran, there has been a general acknowledgment that Russia has only a limited ability to influence the unfolding events. A little more about the state of Iran-Russia relations has been revealed in recent statements from President Vladimir Putin.
Putin said that Iran has not requested Russian help so far, but noted that, “If the situation escalates, we’ll see if they will need help.”
The Russian leader added that there is no “defense clause” in any agreements between Russia and Iran. “Iran did not want to cooperate with Russia on air defense previously. Iran fights the fight alone; they’re proud and want to be self-reliant,” Putin added.
As for Russian assistance for the Iranian nuclear program, Putin said that over 200 Russian experts are currently helping build two more nuclear reactor units at the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran. “We have agreed with the Israeli leadership that their safety will be ensured,” Putin said. The Russian leader also claimed that, despite Israeli airstrikes, Iran’s underground plants exist. “Nothing happened to them,” he added.
Update: 6pm eastern
Some analysis from our editor-in-chief on the current state of play:
Reality is every day Israel does the work alone, the direct risk to U.S. aircrews and assets and personnel in the region goes down should the U.S. jump in with kinetic effects. Oh there is still risk, it’s war, so much is unforeseeable. But this is just the reality of waiting.
Every hour that passes, Iran’s air defenses (which are still a threat, albeit a greatly diminished one) and arsenal degrades. Command and control is under increasing pressure, although there is risk of some recovery there with time if the pressure is let off. Big question is where does Iran’s short-range ballistic missile, one-way-attack drone, and cruise missile capability sit? Has it been degraded substantially too? If not, that is what is the greatest risk to the region, not the MRBM/IRBMs we are seeing being used against Israel, which are much harder to hide and disperse. What about Iran’s Navy?
So does a decision need to be made right now? No. And arguably the U.S. benefits from waiting, balanced against the risks.
I realize some won’t like this explanation due to personal positions and politics, but my job is to tell it to you straight. That’s the lay of the land as it sits, like it or not.
The U.S. could up its non kinetic support in the meantime with lower risk of major reaction. Supply tanker support to the IAF. Would make huge difference in velocity of the conflict. Even if some of this is happening now clandestinely, it cannot match doing it in the open at scale.
In addition, more time, even a day or two, will allow more assets to be moved into place to best execute any orders and defend against any blowback. This includes the Nimitz carrier strike group that is in the Indian Ocean now on its way to the CENTCOM area of responsibility.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com