Open-source tracking data and spotters on the ground are showing a sudden surge of U.S. aircraft to Europe. The deployments include C-17 Globemaster III cargo jets, possibly packed with helicopters, emanating from the home of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR), AC-130J Ghostrider gunships, and a shadowy special operations turboprop aircraft. While U.S. aircraft routinely transit to and through that continent, the number of flights and their origin have raised speculation of potential future special operations missions in the region, and that speculation could be well founded.
The deployments of these aircraft increasingly seem like they are in support of a future operation to board the Russian-flagged Crude Oil Tanker Marinera, which until recently has been known as the Bella-1, and has been pursued by the Coast Guard since last month. CBS News on Monday afternoon reported that the U.S. will likely try to intercept the vessel, now in the North Atlantic. We’ll discuss that more later, including why the 160th SOAR may be needed for such an operation, in this story.
Here is what we have seen over the past 36 hours. Online flight tracking data shows that there were at least 10 Globemaster flights that left the U.S. for Europe on Jan. 3. At least four of these flights were from Fort Campbell in Kentucky, fueling unconfirmed speculation of an influx of U.S. special operations aviation assets. Fort Campbell is home to the 160th SOAR, also known as the Night Stalkers, the elite aviation unit that played a key role in locating and capturing Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife. You can read more about that in our story about Operation Absolute Resolve here.
There are claims that several of the Night Stalkers’ highly modified MH-47 Chinooks and MH-60M Black Hawks, presumably dropped off by the C-17s, were seen at RAF Fairford; however, no visual evidence has emerged to confirm that.
“As I think we have offered many times previously, we do not comment on the operational activity of other nations, including use of UK bases,” a U.K. Defense Ministry (MoD) official told us. “Likewise, neither the MOD or RAF would offer comment on speculation on what [U.S. bases in England] assets are or indeed are not doing.”
The 160th did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Beyond the possibility of the helicopters being delivered, at least two AC-130J Ghostrider gunships landed Sunday at RAF Mildenhall, where they still remain, according to Andrew McKelvey, a local spotter who was kind enough to share his photos of the aircraft with us. U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command, which operates those aircraft, declined to comment.
One of the U.S. Air Force’s shadowy CASA CN-235 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance planes was also deployed to RAF Fairford.
U.S. European Command, which oversees American military operations in that region, declined to offer any specifics about the nature of these flights.
“U.S. European Command routinely hosts transient U.S. military aircraft (and personnel) in accordance with access, basing, and overflight agreements with Allies and partners,” the command told us in an early Monday morning email. “Taking into account operational security for U.S. assets and personnel, further details are not releasable at this time.”
While the nature of these flights remains unclear, there was a similar surge from Fort Campbell in the days leading up to Operation Absolute Resolve.
The 160th SOAR works across the globe on a daily basis, deploying for operational tasking to execute a huge array of mission sets. These include training and large-force exercises and combat operations. Night Stalker crews get experience all over the world in many environments. Movements of this kind are not that unusual, but after the Venezuelan mission, they certainly are drawing more attention.
The Marinera is another connection to Venezuela. The vessel is laden with Venezuelan oil and part of a so-called shadow fleet transporting oil for Russia, Iran and Venezuela in violation of sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries. The Trump administration said this weekend they would continue to interdict these vessels. The Coast Guard attempted to board the ship on Dec. 20, but the crew refused to allow it. As we saw last month, personnel fast-roping from helicopters played a key role in the seizure of the M/V Skipper, another sanctioned oil tanker. Night Stalker assets could very well assist in any attempt to capture the Marinera, which could be considered a more dangerous operation due to the intelligence gathered and interactions with its crew.
You can see video of the boarding of the Skipper below.
Highlighting the potential danger of this kind of operation, CBS News reported that “Venezuelan officials had discussed placing armed military personnel on tankers — disguising them as civilians for defense purposes — as well as portable Soviet-era air defense systems.” The discussions took place before the capture of Maduro and his wife, the network added.
Night Stalkers are far better prepared for taking down a defended ship like this, including with their defensive systems and the ability to provide their own air support. The AC-130J is also capable of making pinpoint gun strikes on vessels for exactly this kind of operation as we have showcased in our previous reporting.
Bolstering the theory that a special operations boarding mission may be imminent, U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft have been observed by online trackers following the Marinera.
Other nations are following the oil tanker. Irish Air Corps C-295W maritime search aircraft have also been observed by flight trackers operating near the location of the Marinera.
There are other potential reasons for the special operations aviation assets to be deployed to Europe. One possibility is a NATO exercise called Steadfast Dart 2026 that kicked off on Jan. 2.
The exercise “is a Joint Deployment Exercise to test and train the operational deployment and reinforcement of the [Allied Reaction Force] ARF 25 Elements to NATO Vigilance Area Center under peacetime conditions,” according to NATO. However, given that this was a long-planned exercise, the snap nature of the deployments from Fort Campbell and elsewhere makes it unlikely there is a connection.
Meanwhile, SOAR is also conducting a recruiting drive in Germany that begins Jan. 6, the regiment stated on X. It is unclear how many, if any, SOAR aircraft have been forward deployed for the recruitment effort. SOAR did not immediately respond to our request for comment.
Beyond these possibilities, there has been speculation that some U.S. assets might be heading to the Middle East ahead of a potential future conflict with Iran. We saw similar movements in the run-up to Operation Midnight Hammer, the June attack on Iran that saw U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bombers drop 14 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities.
It is also possible that the cargo flights to the Middle East are routine. There is a lot of air traffic back and forth from that region.
Still, given that other major U.S. operations have followed these kinds of aircraft deployments, and the situation with the now Russian-flagged Marinera tanker and reports of it being a harder target than what has been seen in other recent boarding operations, the 160th SOAR may be back at it on a world stage very soon.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com