The Pentagon is alarmed by the rate at which Tomahawk cruise missile stocks have been depleted during ongoing operations against Iran, according to officials who spoke to The Washington Post. The latest development highlights a matter of growing importance for the Department of Defense, which is increasingly looking at the resilience of weapons stocks as it envisages a future high-end scenario in the Pacific, especially a conflict over Taiwan.
So far, the U.S. Navy has fired more than 850 Tomahawk missiles in the war with Iran, officials familiar with the matter told The Washington Post. This has prompted discussions about how more missiles could be made available.
As it stands, only a few hundred examples of the critical long-range strike weapon are manufactured each year, meaning the global supply is limited. The exact number available to the U.S. military at any given time is a closely guarded secret, although the article suggested a higher-end figure of between 4,000 and 4,500 Tomahawk missiles on hand at the start of Epic Fury, and a lower-end figure closer to 3,000 missiles. Again, the Tomahawk would be a primary weapon system used in a conflict with China, where the target sets can range into the tens of thousands, and the country’s anti-access umbrella will require the use of standoff munitions like none other in history.
“The Pentagon has tracked the number of Tomahawks used with an increasing focus on what the burn rate will mean for not only a sustained campaign against Iran but for future military operations as well,” the report states.
One official told The Washington Post that the number of Tomahawks left in the Middle East was “alarmingly low,” while another said that without intervention, the Pentagon is closing in on “Winchester” — military slang meaning out of ammunition — for its supply of the missiles in the region.
The Tomahawk also comes with a hefty price tag: up to $3.6 million for some of the more recent versions, and each round can require up to two years to build. The Navy also faces a problem in that, in recent years, only small batches have been purchased: just 57 examples were included in last year’s defense budget.
At the same time, the Trump administration has repeatedly claimed that critical munitions stockpiles have not been dangerously depleted in the Iran war.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said earlier this month that the U.S. military “has more than enough munitions, ammo and weapons stockpiles to achieve the goals of Operation Epic Fury laid out by President Trump — and beyond.”
Every indication we have seen is that for some munitions, that is not reality. The war in Ukraine and constant crisis in the Middle East have depleted those stockpiles, and many of the weapons take years to build, with finite caps on how many can be delivered in any given year. This is a story we have been covering for years. The Trump administration is working to greatly expand production of advanced munitions, but even the fruits of those efforts will take years to realize.
UPDATES:
UPDATE: 3:30 PM EST –
Reuters is reporting that Arab states in the Gulf are urging the United States to ensure that any deal with Tehran should do more than end the war. Instead, it must ensure Iranian missile and drone capabilities are “permanently curbed” and that Iran will never again be able to “weaponize” global energy supplies. The agency cites four unnamed Gulf sources.
Meanwhile, it appears that Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait are prioritizing a quick end to the war, while the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain are more willing for the fighting to continue, if their longer-term aims are met in any deal to end the war.
UPDATE: 3:10 PM EST –
The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has confirmed that Israel struck two of its most important steel production facilities, as well as nuclear sites — presumably including the Khondab Heavy Water Complex (see previous updates).
Araghchi said that Friday’s strikes contradicted President Donald Trump’s pledge to postpone attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure for 10 days after he claimed talks were “going well.” He further said that Tehran would exact a “heavy price” for the attacks.
Saudi Arabia wants the U.S. military to ramp up its attacks on Iran, according to a Saudi intelligence source, and the kingdom is meanwhile reportedly also considering joining the fight directly, alongside the United States and Israel. Whether or not Saudi Arabia also starts launching strikes against Iran remains to be seen, but it is the clearest indication so far that the kingdom might become more deeply involved in the conflict, at least at some level.
A Saudi intelligence source confirmed to The Guardian that Riyadh was urging the United States to both continue and intensify the military campaign against Iran. The same source confirmed similar reporting in The New York Times, which states that Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, had called upon Trump to not curtail Operation Epic Fury, and that the U.S.-Israeli campaign represented a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East.
Earlier this week, Trump told journalists that the crown prince is “a warrior. He’s fighting with us.”
At this point, however, there are no reports of active Saudi military involvement in the conflict, but the kingdom is now at least weighing up that option, if peace efforts fail.
This week, The Wall Street Journal and Jerusalem Post both reported that Saudi Arabia has decided to open up additional military bases for the use of the U.S. military in its operations against Iran. Reportedly, the facilities include King Fahd Air Base in Taif in western Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia has come under direct Iranian attack since the start of Epic Fury, including a drone strike last week on the oil refinery in Yanbu on the Saudi Red Sea coast.
At the same time, Saudi oil exports are not as vulnerable as those of other countries in the region, so it has not suffered to the same degree as other Gulf states. Much of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports are carried by a pipeline to the Red Sea, purposefully avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.
There is also the threat that the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, which have long waged a separate war with Saudi Arabia, could be drawn into the current conflict if the Saudi position changes.
Were that to happen, the vital Red Sea oil pipeline could become a very prominent target for Iran and the Houthis.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared today that shipping “to and from ports of allies and supporters of the Israeli-American enemies” is prohibited through any corridor or to any destination, Iranian state media reported.
The IRGC added that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and any attempted transit through the strategic waterway will face “harsh measures.”
There have been reports today of three container ships of various nationalities turning back from the Strait of Hormuz, after warnings were issued by the IRGC Navy.
As we reported in our previous rolling coverage, Trump threatened last Saturday that he would destroy Iranian power plants if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
On Monday, the U.S. leader postponed his threat for five days (until Friday), citing “very good and productive conversations” with Iran on ending the war — something that Tehran has described as “fake news.”
Now, Trump is pushing that deadline back again, pausing his threat to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure for 10 days until April 6, claiming that the request came from Tehran and that talks were going “very well.”
At the same time, there are suggestions that the Iran war, in general, may be of diminishing interest to the U.S. president.
“[Trump] is getting a little bored with Iran,” a senior White House official told Jake Traylor of MS NOW. “Not that he regrets it or something — he’s just bored and wants to move on.”
There are suggestions of something of a rift between Israel and the United States, as to the course the conflict should take.
According to Israeli journalist Barak Ravid, U.S. Vice President JD Vance had a “difficult” call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this week.
Reportedly, Vance said that Israeli assessments for toppling the Iranian regime were not realistic enough, saying, “You were too optimistic in your assessments regarding the overthrow of the regime in Iran.”
As we reported earlier this week, F-35Cs from the U.S. Marine Corps are the latest fighters poised to deploy to the Middle East region for Operation Epic Fury. The movement of these aircraft to RAF Lakenheath in England signals what is set to be the first land-based combat deployment for the F-35C, the carrier variant of the Joint Strike Fighter flown by both the Navy and Marine Corps. We now have some better imagery of the first visit of these aircraft to a base in the United Kingdom.
The United Arab Emirates has told allies that it would participate in a multinational maritime task force intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as it pushes to form a coalition to ensure shipping can pass through the vital waterway, the Financial Times reports.
According to the FT, the UAE has told the United States and other Western nations that it would take part, and that Abu Dhabi would deploy assets from its own navy.
Like Saudi Arabia, the UAE is taking a harder line on Iran, as it comes under regular attack by Tehran’s retaliation strikes.
The same report also states that the UAE is working on a UN Security Council resolution with Bahrain to provide any future task force with a mandate.
According to an assessment from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., the U.S. strike campaign has settled into a “sustainable pace of bombing,” striking between 300 and 500 targets per day. U.S. forces are also now mainly using stand-in weapons, rather than more expensive standoff munitions. As a result of the “munitions transition,” the costs of running the war have been greatly reduced — although not without risk to aircraft and airmen.
The Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal has reported, quoting Defense Department officials. Having more troops in the region would give Trump more military options and greater bargaining power, as he seeks to bring Tehran to the negotiating table.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has said that “it should not be necessary” for U.S. forces to invade Iran. “I think we can get this resolved without it,” he added.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also suggested that the U.S. military will not need to deploy ground troops to accomplish U.S. objectives in the war, although he also reflected on the importance of giving Trump “maximum optionality” for any contingency.
So far, it seems that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not yet agreed to negotiations.
Should the U.S. military conduct some kind of ground operation, various energy infrastructure within the United Arab Emirates (UAE) would come under Iranian attack, with a target list published by Iran’s state-backed Fars News Agency. Designated targets include desalination plants, nuclear power plants, and other power hubs across the UAE.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) say they carried out further strikes on targets in Tehran early on Friday. A brief military statement said Israeli forces “completed a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime in the heart of Tehran.”
In a separate statement, the IDF said that it had also struck “ballistic missiles and aerial defense systems production sites across Iran.” It reported hitting missile launchers and storage sites in western Iran, as well as missile production sites in the capital. Other targets apparently included Iran’s primary facility for the production of naval cruise missiles and sea mines in Yazd, Iran.
“The site was used for the planning, development, assembly, and storage of advanced missiles intended for launch from cruise platforms, submarines, and helicopters toward both mobile and stationary maritime targets,” the IDF said.
The latest round of U.S.-Israeli strikes hit a heavy water reactor in central Iran, Iranian media reported today.
“The Khondab Heavy Water Complex was targeted in two stages by aggression from the American and Zionist enemy,” the Fars News Agency reported, citing Hassan Ghamari, an official in the central Markazi province. Fars and other media said there were no casualties or radiation leaks from the site.
The facility is intended to produce the heavy water used to cool nuclear reactors. As a byproduct of this process, plants of this kind also produce plutonium, which can potentially be used in nuclear weapons. This would offer another route to procuring a nuclear warhead, other than enriched uranium.
There are reports out of Iran that recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeted key steel production facilities. The semi-official Iranian Mehr news outlet claims that steel plants were hit in the central Iranian city of Isfahan, with separate attacks on the Khuzestan Steel and Mobarakeh Steel factories.
In response to an inquiry from The Jerusalem Post, the Israeli military said that it was not aware of any Israeli strikes on the facilities.
The U.S. military has deployed uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) for patrols as part of its operations against Iran, the Pentagon has said, according to the Jerusalem Post. The specific type of drone boats that have been deployed was not reported, although this is not the first time that the U.S. military has used USVs in the region, notably in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has accused the U.S. military of using Persian Gulf citizens as human shields.
“From outset of this war, U.S. soldiers fled military bases in GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] to hide in hotels and offices. They use citizens as human shield. Hotels in U.S. deny bookings to officers who may endanger customers. GCC hotels should do same,” Abbas Araghchi said in a post on his X account.
As we reported yesterday, Iranian bombardment of U.S. military facilities in the wider region does appear to be driving the relocation of soldiers, although there is no suggestion of a human shield policy.
According to a report from The New York Times, citing military personnel and American officials, a significant number of U.S. troops have been forced to relocate from their bases to hotels and office spaces throughout the region.
Reports in the Lebanese media suggest that an Israeli strike hit Beirut’s southern suburbs early today. Several explosions were heard in the area, which is considered a Hezbollah stronghold. Israel has previously issued evacuation warnings for the area but provided no specific warning in advance of Friday’s strike, AFP said.
Kuwait’s Shuwaikh port was hit by drones, causing material damage with no injuries reported, the Kuwait Ports Authority said today.
The international airport in Kuwait City also appears to have been on the receiving end of recent Iranian attacks, with a significant blaze there today, after a reported drone strike.
Iran-linked hackers today claimed they had accessed FBI Director Kash Patel’s personal email inbox, Reuters reports. The group claims to have published photographs of the director and other documents on the internet.
Satellite imagery of the Yazd missile complex, one of the most important in Iran, from earlier this month, reveals the shadow of an apparent Khorramshahr missile before being launched toward Israel. The original Khorramshahr first emerged publicly in 2017, and it is assessed to be derived, at least in part, from a North Korean design. It is a liquid-fuel medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) with a claimed range of around 1,250 miles (2,000 kilometers).
Recent analysis from ThePrint, an Indian digital news platform, suggests that Iran has launched around 4,300 missiles and drones since the start of the current conflict, with the majority of these targeting Gulf nations, rather than Israel. The analysis states that Tehran has launched at least 1,815 drones and 372 missiles at the UAE since the start of the war. Israel, in comparison, has faced roughly 930 missile and drone attacks in the same period.
In related news, Reuters today published an assessment stating that, so far, the Pentagon can only confirm that about a third of the Iranian missile arsenal has been destroyed.
Satellite imagery from yesterday indicates that the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford has left Naval Support Activity Souda Bay in Crete, Greece, escorted by three patrol boats. The supercarrier went to Souda Bay for repairs after a fire broke out in the laundry area while underway in the Middle East on March 12, injuring two sailors.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says that his country has “reached an important arrangement” with Saudi Arabia on defense cooperation. The agreement between the defense ministries of the two countries is almost certain to involve counter-drone technologies and expertise.
“We are ready to share our expertise and systems with Saudi Arabia and to work together to strengthen the protection of lives,” Zelensky wrote on X. “Now into the fifth year, Ukrainians are resisting the same kind of terrorist attacks — ballistic missiles and drones — that the Iranian regime is currently carrying out in the Middle East and the Gulf region. Saudi Arabia also has capabilities that are of interest to Ukraine, and this cooperation can be mutually beneficial.”
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com