Iran appears to be increasingly focusing its retaliatory attacks against energy production infrastructure in Gulf Arab States. The U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran is also continuing at a significant tempo, including a major new wave of Israeli strikes going after leadership targets in Tehran.
Readers can catch up on previous developments in the ongoing conflict in our previous rolling coverage here.
Increased targeting of Gulf Arab States’ oil and natural gas production is part of a clear Iranian strategy to put pressure on those countries to, in turn, create complications for the United States. As the economic pressure builds, the idea is that these countries will seek to end the conflict, and/or that relations with the U.S. will sour. The prospect of major, long-term disruptions in energy exports from the region has global ramifications, as well, which could bring immense external pressure to end the conflict. There is also the aspect of drawing Arab countries into the conflict, which would complicate it politically and militarily. In addition, some energy targets are not as well defended as U.S. bases in the region, for instance, and scoring hits with the now finite weapons Iran has on hand becomes easier.
So, it’s not surprising that Iran has morphed its tactics in this manner. How this will all play out is unknown. But if the war continues on for a prolonged period, and interceptors run low while Iran’s stocks of drones and missiles don’t dry up, this entire issue could become greatly magnified.
So far, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the United States, have pushed back on reports that interceptor stocks are dwindling and the U.S. is resisting replenishing them due to its own stockpile concerns. It isn’t clear if this is a case of strategic counter-messaging or if indeed stockpiles remain in the green, although from everything we understand about the stockpile issue overall, the former seems far more likely.
Impacted energy-related targets are relatively wide-ranging and the scope of attacks appears to be becoming larger with time.
A large fire broke out today in the Oil Industry Zone in Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), reportedly caused by falling debris from the interception of an Iranian drone. The port of Fujairah sits on the Gulf of Oman, on the other side of the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz.
According to state-run Oman News Agency, two Iranian drones were shot down today above the Dhofar governorate in southern Oman, while a third came down close to the port of Salalah. No casualties or damage were reported.
The Port of Duqm in Oman was also targeted by several drones, according to the country’s state news agency. One of these is said to have struck a fuel tank.
Several ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz have also come under attack, as you can read about here. Yesterday, U.S. Central Command denied Iranian claims that the Strait was closed. Online ship tracking data shows a major slowdown in traffic overall, but there is still some movement through this highly strategic waterway. Imagery is also emerging showing a backlog of ships waiting to pass through.
Oil production at Iraq’s largest oil field, in Shafaq, has reportedly been halted, as has the flow of oil through a pipeline that links its northern Kurdish autonomous region with Turkey. There are reports that Iraqi oil exports, overall, have slowed dramatically due to the ongoing conflict.
This all follows Iranian attacks yesterday that caused a halt to some operations at the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia and a shutdown in liquid natural gas production by state-owned QatarEnergy in that country.
Further rolling coverage can be found below, with the newest updates at the top.
UPDATE: 2:46 PM EST-
The IDF says it has now destroyed 300 Iranian missile launchers since the start of the conflict. Israeli authorities also say the country’s fighters have flown more than 1,600 sorties and dropped more than 4,000 munitions.
The IDF says it has targeted an Iranian facility on the outskirts of Tehran where scientists “worked secretly to develop capabilities required for nuclear weapons.”
The IDF is also still assessing the results of its strike targeting Iran’s Assembly of Experts in Qom. There are reports that none of the 88 clerics who make up this group were in the building when it was hit. Iranian quasi-state media claims a vote for the next Supreme Leader of the country was held remotely for security reasons.
The satellite imagery below shows damage to Iranian leadership targets in Tehran from Israeli strikes earlier today.
U.S. Central Command has also released new footage showing strikes targeting Iranian kamikaze drone capabilities.
Imagery has emerged that is said to show a fire at a U.S. diplomatic facility in Dubai following an Iranian drone attack.
There are reports that President Donald Trump’s administration is considering using military assets to escort oil and natural gas tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Any warships supporting these operations would also have to operate in the Strait, with all the potential risks entailed. The report says that the U.S. government could also seek to back maritime insurance, where some rates have been hiked and some policies outright cancelled as a result of the current conflict.
Iraqi authorities say that all refineries “are operating continuously and at their full design capacity to produce various petroleum derivatives,” according to the country’s Rudaw news outlet.
President Donald Trump has said that “it would seem to me that somebody from within [Iran] maybe would be more appropriate” when asked if Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran, is someone the U.S. might look to as part of a new Iranian government.
“Yes, the State Department is actively securing military aircraft and charter flights for American citizens who wish to leave the Middle East,” Assistant Secretary of State for Global Public Affairs Dylan Johnson has written in a post on X in response to questions about what steps are being taken to help American citizens depart the Middle East. However, at the time of writing, the phone number he has given out starts with a recorded message advising callers not to rely on the U.S. government.
UPDATE: 1:29 PM EST-
The Israel Defense Forces have confirmed strikes in Isfahan and elsewhere in Iran. In Isfahan, the targets are said to have been related to the Iranian ballistic missile arsenal rather than the nuclear facility there.
Israel has now also issued an explicit threat to strike Iranian officials in Lebanon if they do not leave within 24 hours. The IDF said earlier that it killed Daoud Alizadeh, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force’s acting commander in charge of operations in Lebanon, in strikes on targets in Tehran. The IDF has also continued to target Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
A British F-35B Joint Strike Fighter has shot down an Iranian drone while flying over Jordan. This is the first time one of the United Kingdom’s F-35Bs has shot down an aerial target in combat, at least that we know of. The U.K. Ministry of Defense now also says it is sending Wildcat helicopters to Cyprus, primarily to support counter-drone operations. The Wildcat has a demonstrated ability to knock down drones using the Martlet missile.
The UAE’s Ministry of Defense has now shown wreckage of Iranian missiles and drones. Included in the display were the remains of Shahed 136 and Shahed 107 kamikaze drones, as well as Qiam short-range ballistic missiles and Paveh ground-launched land-attack cruise missiles.
The UAE says now that it has successfully intercepted 172 ballistic missiles, 8 cruise missiles and 812 kamikaze drones launched by Iran, in total. One ballistic missile and 57 drones have “impacted within state territory.” Another 13 ballistic missiles have come down in the sea around the country.
Axios has reported that the UAE is now considering taking “active defense measures against Iran” in the face of continued attacks.
“To the very large numbers of people who have been in touch from all 4 corners of the globe: Oman appreciates the support you have shown for our efforts to stop the war,” Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, who had been helping mediate U.S.-Iran talks before the conflict erupted, has written in a post on X. “Strengthened by your solidarity, Oman reaffirms its call for an immediate ceasefire and a return to responsible regional diplomacy. There are off ramps available. Let’s use them.”
UPDATE: 12:32 PM EST-
U.S. Air Force B-52 bombers have joined the air campaign against Iran, according to a new fact sheet from U.S. Central Command seen below. American forces have now struck more than 1,700 targets in total.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said Iran “is running out of [missile] launchers” and “running out of areas to shoot them, because they’re being decimated,” according to Politico‘s Sophia Cai.
Trump also told Cai that it is “not too late” to work in some fashion with a new Iranian government. He pushed back again on concerns about low stocks of anti-air interceptors, as well.
During a press conference alongside German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the White House today, Trump pushed back on reports that the Israeli government had pressured him into attacking Iran. He also reiterated previous comments that “most of the people we had in mind” as potential partners in a new Iranian government “are dead.”
“We will see what happens, but first we have to finish off the military,” he added.
President Trump has also said that he has ordered an end to “all dealings” with Spain. Spanish authorities have blocked access to military bases in the country to U.S. forces supporting Operation Epic Fury.
President Donald Trump has also now said that the reason why various U.S. embassies in the region were not evacuated ahead of the start of U.S.-Israeli strikes this past weekend was that the situation moved too fast to allow for it. The U.S. State Department has now issued evacuation orders for embassies in several Middle Eastern countries.
Imagery has emerged showing what looks to show the aftermath of strikes on facilities belonging to the naval army of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the port of Jask. U.S. authorities have said the destruction of Iran’s naval capabilities is a top objective of Operation Epic Fury.
“We don’t see a structured program to manufacture nuclear weapons,” International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi has reiterated today. “Countries have either other information or political considerations, which are not for me to validate, as I said, or invalidate.”
The IAEA has also now confirmed new damage to Iran’s Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) based on satellite imagery, which has also been circulating online. “No radiological consequence expected and no additional impact detected at FEP itself, which was severely damaged in the June conflict,” the IAEA added in a statement.
Alexey Likhachev, head of Russia’s state-run nuclear company Rosatom, has said he has lost all contact with his counterparts in Iran and that operations at the country’s Bushehr nuclear power plant had been halted. Russian personnel assist with operations at Bushehr.
UPDATE: 11:46 AM EST-
U.S. Central Command and the Israel Defense Forces have shared more video clips showing strikes on Iranian missile launchers.
The Ministry of Defense in the United Arab Emirates has released footage, which looks to have been shot via targeting pods on aircraft, of intercepts of incoming Iranian missiles and drones.
The video below is said to show munitions impacting a target in the Iranian city of Urmia as part of ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes.
Imagery is emerging showing new strikes on Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran.
Imagery showing the aftermath of strikes on other targets in Tehran has also emerged.
The video below shows a commercial airliner taking off from Beirut International Airport in Lebanon amid Israeli strikes.
Qatari authorities are pushing back on reports that they have conducted strikes on targets in Iran.
An Iranian drone strike overnight on the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, reportedly caused part of the roof to collapse. Saudi authorities had initially said the resulting damage to the building was minimal. The Saudi government has also condemned that attack.
Despite pushback elsewhere, Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz has warned that demand for air defense capabilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could upend deliveries of U.S.-made systems globally, including to Ukraine. The Chosun Ilbo newspaper in South Korea has also published a story raising questions about whether U.S. air defense assets in that country could be redeployed to the Middle East, but it does not say such movements are imminent.
Iranian authorities say the current death toll from U.S.-Israeli strikes is now 787, but how many of those individuals are members of the country’s military or security forces is unclear. Lebanese authorities also say that 40 people have been killed and 246 more wounded in Israeli strikes on that country over the past two days.
UPDATE: 11:23 AM EST-
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran continue. The Israel Defense Forces say a wave of 100 jets dropped 250 munitions on leadership targets in Tehran earlier this morning. A building in the city of Qom, where Iran’s Assembly of Experts was reportedly meeting as part of the process of choosing a new Supreme Leader, was also struck.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has issued a statement regarding the delegation of authorities to regional officials to enable “quick decision making” amid ongoing strikes targeting the country’s leadership.
The video below is said to show a Centurion Counter-Rocket, Artillery, Mortar (C-RAM) system in Iraq firing on an incoming Iranian drone. The Centurion is a ground-based version of the Phalanx Close-In Weapon System (CIWS) used on various U.S. and foreign warships, and is armed with a six-barrel 20mm Vulcan Gatling-type cannon.
French fighters are now flying over the United Arab Emirates to help bolster that country’s defenses. France is also reportedly sending anti-air and anti-drone capabilities to help protect Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean.
U.K. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has also announced the deployment of the Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon to bolster the defense of Cyprus.
Iranian media reports say the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has targeted dissident groups in northern Iraq. Axios has also reported that President Donald Trump spoke with Iraqi Kurdish leaders this past week about “what might come next.” There have been reports raising the possibility of armed Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq launching a ground incursion even before the current conflict began.
U.S. President Donald Trump has now said that it is “too late” to negotiate with Iran’s new leadership, according to Fox News. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who took part in negotiations in the lead-up to the current conflict, claims that Iranian officials say they “have enough enriched uranium for 11 nuclear bombs.”
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com