Iran’s armed forces claim that a U.S. fighter jet has been shot down over the country. According to Iranian state media, a U.S. F-35 was downed, although photos of the wreckage of a fighter on the ground point squarely to the aircraft involved being a U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle — provided they are legitimate.
A spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central headquarters said today that an F-35 was brought down over the central part of the country by a new type of air defense system operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with little chance the pilot survived, Reuters reports. The F-15E carries two aircrew, while the F-35 is a single-seater. At this point, we have no firm indication of the fate of the crew if such an incident did indeed take place.
It also remains possible that the images of the wreckage have been manipulated, and we are dealing with misinformation. However, the photos appear genuine and are certainly consistent with parts of an F-15E, including one of the vertical tails, and parts of the wing and tail. There is also the possibility that the images derive from an earlier F-15E loss, which we will come to later.
Specifically, the tail seen here would indicate an aircraft assigned to the 494th Fighter Squadron at RAF Lakenheath in England, based on its red band. This is one of the units that has been deployed to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of operations for Epic Fury. The 494th FS has also been extremely active over the CENTCOM area of responsibility for many years.
We should also consider that the F-15E could have come down for multiple reasons other than being shot down by air defenses, as Iran claims. Potentially, the jet could have been hit and lost its tail and even part of its wing, before returning to safe airspace. That might sound incredible, but F-15s have done this before.
Iran might also be presenting some other F-15E wreckage. Iran has collected many wrecks of foreign aircraft over the years, but where this one would have come from is not clear.
Previous documented F-15E crashes in the Middle East or Afghanistan don’t involve aircraft from the 494th Fighter Squadron, as far as we can ascertain. Specifically, since Desert Storm (when the 48th Fighter Wing operated F-111s, not F-15Es), these (non-combat) losses occurred in Iraq (April 2003, 335th FS, 4th FW), Afghanistan (July 2009, 336th FS, 4th FW), and Libya (March 2011, 492nd FS, 48th FW).
Hours before the F-35 claim, the IRGC released a video of what it said showed the successful shootdown of a U.S. F-15 over Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz. In this case, they attributed the claimed shootdown to an unnamed advanced naval air defense system. The video shows the typical ground-based FLIR systems we have seen in use by air defenses in Yemen and, more recently, Iran. The video does not show the aircraft being struck, but it does show it maneuvering and releasing flares.
That claim was swiftly rebutted by CENTCOM.
At this point, it is unclear if these various incidents are connected, especially since the IRGC specifically identified an F-35 as being shot down, while the claimed Qeshm Island video and the apparent wreckage on the ground clearly show F-15s.
It should be recalled that three F-15Es were brought down over Kuwait in a friendly fire incident earlier in the campaign. CENTCOM confirmed that the six crew members involved ejected safely, and at least some of those remained in theater and have resumed combat operations. It was reported that the three Strike Eagles were brought down by a Kuwaiti Air Force F/A-18 Hornet, although many details of the incident remain unclear. At least one of these jets was from the 48th FW, so we cannot entirely rule out the possibility that we are seeing photos of wreckage from that incident here.
Last month, the IRCG claimed that a U.S. Air Force F-35A was hit over Iran, and U.S. officials confirmed the jet made an emergency landing, with the pilot having sustained shrapnel injuries. The IRGC released a video that they claimed shows the F-35 being hit by a missile, as seen through a forward-looking infrared (FLIR) system that is identical to the kind in yesterday’s supposed footage of the shootdown.
There appear to have been near-misses for U.S. fighter jets operating over Iran, too. On March 26, videos emerged showing an apparent very close call for a U.S. Navy F/A-18E/F Super Hornet after it was targeted by what appears to have been an Iranian man-portable air defense system (MANPADS). The F/A-18 was conducting a low-level strafing run at the time.
Taken together, all these events underscore the persistent threat posed by Iranian air defenses, whatever is left of them. Despite claims from U.S. officials of aerial superiority over Iran, the continued risk from various air defense systems is something that we have repeatedly drawn attention to.
The apparent incident today comes amid continuing regional tensions, with Iran launching more attacks across the Middle East, including missile strikes targeting Israel and Bahrain, as well as a drone attack that set an oil refinery in Kuwait on fire.
We have approached CENTCOM, the Pentagon, and U.S. Air Forces in Europe for more information and will continue to update this story as more details emerge.
UPDATES:
UPDATE: 9:00 AM EST–
Citing Iranian media as well as an unnamed source familiar with the incident, Axios reports that Iran did shoot down a U.S. jet, and that a search and rescue effort is underway to locate two crew.
UPDATE: 8:50 AM EST–
At least some official Iranian media channels are now also reporting the U.S. military aircraft claimed shot down over the country earlier today as an F-15E, rather than an F-35.
UPDATE: 8:35 AM EST–
Iranian television channels are apparently now broadcasting a message offering a reward from the regime for anyone who can capture the U.S. pilot alive.
UPDATE: 8:30 AM EST–
Additional videos, purportedly taken in Iran, appear to show a pair of HH-60 helicopters taking turns to refuel from an HC-130J.
UPDATE: 8:15 AM EST–
Tasnim, the semi-official news agency in Iran associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, claims that U.S. attempts to rescue a downed fighter pilot (singular) have failed. The agency says that this was confirmed to them by “news sources” in Kohgiluyeh. The report continues: “The Americans have been conducting search operations for hours using Black Hawk helicopters and a Hercules 130 aircraft to rescue their fighter pilot who was shot down by Iranian armed forces; however, their attempt has failed.”
One of the helicopters involved in the rescue effort was “attacked by air defense near the border and fled the scene,” Tasnim adds.
In a post on X, Tasnim claims: “Unconfirmed reports suggest that Iranian security forces have taken into custody the pilot of a U.S. F-35 fighter jet following its destruction by the country’s air defense system inside Iranian territory.”
Of course, all of these claims remain unverified at this point. It is also puzzling, to say the least, why Iranian reports are consistently identifying the jet as an F-35, while publishing photos of an F-15E.
Unverified footage suggests that the CSAR effort over Iran may also now be supported by F-35 fighters and MQ-9 Reaper drones.
UPDATE: 7:50 AM EST–
Unverified claims from Iranian sources, as well as imagery, suggest that the U.S. military may have staged an effort to rescue pilots from the downed F-15E fighter jet in Iran. Available imagery points to the use of C-130 and H-60 Black Hawk series aircraft. Specifically, U.S. Air Force combat search and rescue efforts typically rely upon the heavily modified HH-60 helicopters for extraction, HC-130J Combat King II aircraft for command and refueling, and highly specialized pararescuemen (PJs).
Also unverified, at this point, is the following image, which claims to show one of the two ejection seats from the downed F-15E.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com