Boeing’s F-47 sixth-generation stealth fighter has been pitched to Japan by U.S. President Donald Trump, according to reports. The idea of an export-configured F-47 was brought up by Trump when he announced Boeing’s win in the U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) manned combat jet initiative in March. Meanwhile, Japan is reportedly also considering increasing its purchase of F-35 fifth-generation stealth fighters, prompted by concerns over the timeline for the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), a sixth-generation combat jet being pursued jointly by Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom.
A possible sale of the F-47 to Tokyo was raised during a phone call between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba last week, according to a report from the Japanese daily newspaper Asahi Shimbun. According to this source, the short-notice call was confirmed by Ishiba administration officials and came just before a visit to the United States by Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s top trade negotiator, for talks on Trump’s economic tariffs.
Trump and Ishiba are said to have discussed the strengthening of the U.S.-Japanese military alliance, with the U.S. leader asking whether the Japanese prime minister agreed that “47” is a good number. The new Boeing fighter received the Mission Design Series designation F-47, echoing the fact that Trump is the 47th U.S. president.
The Asahi Shimbun also reports that Trump praised the F-22 Raptor and the so-called F-55, a purported development of the F-35 that the U.S. president first mentioned while talking to the press earlier this month. Trump has described the F-55 as a twin-engined F-35, but there has been no confirmation from the manufacturer or the Pentagon that such an aircraft is in the works.
According to Japanese officials, Trump asked whether Ishiba was interested in U.S.-made fighters and promised to get “the best” for Japan. The same officials noted that the offer of buying U.S. combat jets was not tied to any tariff negotiations.
At this stage, there’s no sign that Tokyo is actively looking to add a new type of fighter jet to its inventory, although earlier this year, Ishiba did disclose an interest in buying C-17 Globemaster III transport aircraft from the United States. With Boeing’s C-17 production line now shuttered, any such aircraft would have to be transferred from the U.S. Air Force or from an allied operator inventory.
Officially, at least, Japan is still committed to the GCAP program, which aims to field a sixth-generation crewed fighter, which is known in the United Kingdom as Tempest. You can read more about what we know of this aircraft and its planned capabilities here.
However, there are now indications that Japan may be concerned that the Tempest fighter will not be ready for service soon enough for its requirements.
Citing two unnamed defense sources, Reuters reports today that Japan is looking at ways of filling a gap in its fighter fleet pending the likely delayed arrival of GCAP. One of those sources blamed a lack of urgency on the part of Italy and the United Kingdom for the slow pace of the GCAP initiative, while the other noted it was taking too long to align each country’s concept of how the aircraft will operate.
A British Ministry of Defense spokesperson told Reuters that: “The United Kingdom, Italy and Japan are focused on delivering a next-generation combat aircraft for 2035 and we are making strong progress.”
Recently, however, at least one senior British official in the GCAP team has mentioned the goal for Tempest replacing the U.K. Royal Air Force’s Typhoon in the 2040s.
The first option for Japan involves buying additional F-35s. Already, Japan is the largest overseas customer for the aircraft. The Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) is in the process of introducing 147 Joint Strike Fighters, in the form of 105 conventional takeoff and landing F-35As and 42 short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) F-35Bs. The STOVL jets will go aboard Japan’s two Izumo class helicopter carriers, which have been modified to operate F-35Bs.
Reuters reports that senior officials in Tokyo are now discussing the possibility of buying more F-35s, although the numbers involved are unclear.
Currently, Japan has received 43 F-35As, while six F-35Bs have been delayed. Overall, delays in F-35 deliveries related to the introduction of critical upgrades have impacted the program significantly, and it’s unclear how quickly the aircraft could be provided to Japan, even if they were to be ordered imminently.
“We have already paid for many items, and they haven’t arrived,” a senior lawmaker from Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party told Reuters about the current F-35 delays. “It’s not right to be told to buy more when previous orders haven’t been fulfilled.”
However, if Japan does opt for more F-35s, that could come with a potential economic advantage, serving as a bargaining chip for Tokyo amid tariff talks with Washington.
“Japan’s purchase of defense equipment would contribute to the U.S. trade surplus, so in that sense, it could be considered [in trade talks],” Ryosei Akazawa told reporters yesterday.
The second option is to upgrade Japan’s existing fourth-generation fighters. These comprise around 85 Mitsubishi F-2s and approximately 200 F-15Js. Already, 68 of the F-15Js have been earmarked for a long-awaited upgrade that will take them to F-15JSI Japanese Super Interceptor standard with the addition of new radar, electronic warfare systems, weapons, and possibly more.
An upgrade to the F-2s would be a new development, but it would help ensure combat air capability until the arrival of the GCAP.
However, were Japan to buy more F-35s, that could threaten the future of its involvement in GCAP altogether, and if the Japanese were to leave the program, it’s far from certain whether Italy and the United Kingdom would be able to continue without them. Even with Japanese participation, there are questions about the feasibility of GCAP, not least because of the enormous pressure on the U.K. defense budget with various other big-ticket programs competing for funds.
Provided that Trump’s tentative offer of F-47s for Japan is firmed up, that would provide another route for Japan to acquire a sixth-generation fighter, on a similar or potentially more favorable timeline than GCAP.
The F-22 was never offered for export, on account of the sensitive nature of its technologies, as you can read about here. But it seems increasingly likely that the F-47, or a version of it, might be sold. As one of America’s closest military allies, Japan would be well-positioned to buy it, should it be offered.
When announcing the F-47 contract award, Trump said that U.S. allies “are calling constantly” with a view to obtaining an export version of the NGAD fighter. He said that the United States would be selling them to “certain allies … perhaps toned-down versions. We’d like to tone them down about 10 percent, which probably makes sense, because someday, maybe they’re not our allies, right?”
For Japan, or any other potential export customer, the big problem is likely to be the cost, with the baseline F-47’s unit cost expected to be at least twice that of an F-35, or in the $180 million to $200 million range, based on publicly available information.
On the other hand, a somewhat downgraded NGAD crewed fighter, which should also be notably cheaper, could be a very interesting option for Japan, as an alternative to GCAP. It would give Japan the chance of operating America’s top fighter, something it was never allowed to do with the F-22. It would also allow the JASDF to integrate more seamlessly with its U.S. counterparts, which is even more important than for European allies. Moreover, it could open the door to other export opportunities, notably Australia, which is increasingly cooperating with both the United States and Japan.
For the U.S. Air Force, F-47 foreign sales would increase production numbers and could lower unit costs, as well as making maintenance less expensive.
U.S. officials are already talking about different future iterations of the NGAD combat jet. The former Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology & Logistics, Andrew Hunter, recently suggested that the baseline F-47 might just be “Increment 1” of the NGAD crewed combat jet initiative. An export-optimized increment would seem to make a lot of sense.
On the other hand, buying more F-35s or F-47s would come with disadvantages, including reliance on the United States for operational support and sustainment at a time when even close allies are having doubts about the reliability of Washington as a strategic partner.
With Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) having a major stake in GCAP, Japan will have sovereign control of the aircraft once it’s delivered, meaning, for example, that it would be able to adapt or upgrade them without U.S. approval. Tokyo would also benefit from MHI’s industrial partnership in GCAP, with revenues from every sale.
For years now, Japan has been steadily increasing its military budget as it faces what its 2024 defense white paper described as “the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II.” The three primary threats are identified as China’s ambitions toward its southwestern archipelago, as well as Russian and North Korean missile and nuclear programs.
While stepping away from the GCAP effort altogether would have considerable repercussions, far beyond Japan, further delays to that program might well force Tokyo to look at other options for its fighter force.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com