Syrian rebels have entered the country’s second city of Aleppo, after launching a dramatic surprise attack on the government-held areas of northern Aleppo province earlier this week. The development is significant: not only was Aleppo previously seen as very well defended, but it has also been four years since Syrian government forces lost significant swathes of territory.
The insurgents had entered Aleppo as of this afternoon, local time. Meanwhile, the Associated Press said that residents reported hearing missiles striking the city’s outskirts.
Videos posted to social media today claim to show the first Syrian rebel forces entering Aleppo city. Ahead of that, there were multiple reports and further videos showing fierce fighting on the outskirts of the city. Reports suggest that the rebels entered the city from the southwest outskirts, with clashes with regime forces reported less than six miles from there earlier today, in an area straddling the Idlib and Aleppo provinces.
Mohamed Bashir, the leader of the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is at the forefront of the rebel offensive, stated in a press conference today: “This operation aims to repel the sources of fire of the criminal enemy from the frontlines.”
The Syrian state news agency said today that four civilians had been killed in the city itself after student accommodation was hit by projectiles launched by rebel forces.
Earlier today, international media was reporting that the insurgents had succeeded in cutting off the key M5 highway between Aleppo and the Syrian capital, Damascus.
“The highway has now been put out of service after it was reopened by regime forces years ago,” the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a U.K.-based monitor of the conflict, said. The rebels have also taken the junction of the M5 and M4 highways, which connects Damascus and Aleppo with Latakia, a regime stronghold on the coast.
Earlier today, the observatory said that 182 people had been killed in the current offensive, of which 102 were HTS fighters, 19 from allied factions, and 61 from regime forces and allied groups. A significant number of the rebel fatalities were caused by Russian airstrikes. Russian fighter-bombers have been active from Khmeimim Air Base, near the city of Latakia, since 2015, providing vital support to the regime in Damascus.
While the situation on the ground in the city is still confused, and we await confirmation of how far the rebels have advanced, there’s no doubt that their latest offensive has achieved notable gains — and quickly.
The rebel offensive was only launched on Wednesday, apparently led by the HTS but also includes other allied factions, including Turkish-backed Syrian rebel groups. After HTS fighters flooded out of their base in the rebel-held Idlib countryside, the northwest of Syria was scene to some of the fiercest fighting seen in the country for several years.
Already, rebels have taken dozens of towns and villages in the Aleppo countryside and have captured a military base, weapons, and tanks from Syrian government forces.
Russian equipment has also fallen into rebel hands, as evidenced in the videos below.
Today, HTS claimed that it had captured four more towns including Mansoura, five miles from the center of Aleppo.
Syrian government forces have meanwhile been hitting the rebels hard, as they try and blunt their advance.
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), regime forces have carried out at least 125 airstrikes and shelled areas across the Idlib and western Aleppo provinces. In the process, at least 12 civilians have been killed and 46 injured, while 14,000 more have been displaced, the OCHA says.
The background to the latest rebel offensive is the civil war that has raged in Syria ever since a popular uprising against the rule of leader Bashar Assad in 2011. Assad’s forces put down the original uprising with assistance from Russia and Iran. The arrival of Russian military forces in 2015, in particular, proved to be a turning point for Assad. After losing control of around four-fifths of the country, the Russian intervention helped swing the conflict back in favor of the regime.
Back in 2016, there was more fierce fighting around Aleppo, but pro-Assad forces took back control of the city and they have held onto it until now.
In more recent years, with backing from Moscow and Tehran, Assad has remained in power, while the intensity of the conflict has decreased. However, the level of control Assad has over the country is fragile in places, as the latest rebel offensive has demonstrated. Notably, as well as having control over much of the northwest Idlib area, HTS also has strongholds in smaller areas within the Aleppo, Hama, and Latakia provinces.
At the same time, more pressure has been applied on the Syrian regime by Israel, which has stepped up its campaign of airstrikes targeting Iranian proxy forces that operate in the country. This has put the Iranian forces on the defensive, meaning they can no longer contribute as much to shoring up Assad’s forces against the rebels. In addition, Tehran is currently more focused on the fate of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza, as well as the prospect of further strikes on its own territory by Israel.
HTS has specifically said it will target Iranian forces fighting alongside Syrian government troops.
Yesterday, an Iranian news agency reported the death of a general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in Syria, during fighting between government forces and jihadists.
As well as more than 100 Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory, the war in the Middle East has forced around half a million people to flee the conflict in Lebanon for the relative safety of Syria.
Assad’s other major backer, Russia, is meanwhile bogged down in the war in Ukraine, where it has redeployed forces — including air defense units — that were previously being used in support of the Syrian regime.
This leaves Syria as something of a distraction for Russia and it’s notable that, in a statement from the Kremlin today, its spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, called upon Syrian authorities to quickly regain control and thwart the rebel attack, which he described as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty. Russian interests in Syria include the aforementioned Khmeimim Air Base, as well as access to port facilities at Tartus. These two bases serve as the only Russian facilities of their kind in the Mediterranean, making them highly strategic but also symbolic prizes that Moscow gained in exchange for saving Assad.
Another major player is Turkey, which backs several rebel groups active along Syria’s northern border. Recently, Turkey has made efforts to re-establish relations with Assad, but it’s unclear exactly how it will respond to this latest round of fighting. Already, some Turkey-backed factions have joined the new offensive.
At this point, it appears that the Syrian rebels, including HTS, have identified a weakness in the Syrian regime’s grip on the northwest of the country, compounded by Israel’s attacks on Iranian proxies in Syria, as well as Russia’s focus on Ukraine.
Even against this backdrop, it’s surprising how fast the Syrian regime forces have apparently crumbled in the face of the latest rebel offensive. It remains to be seen whether Aleppo will fall but there are also major questions about the ability of Assad’s forces to respond in an effective way, especially without rapid backing from Russia and/or Iran.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com