The long-anticipated Israeli retaliation strike on Iran appears to be underway. U.S. and Iranian media is reporting that Tehran is under attack as videos emerging on social media show explosions in the Iranian capital. The attack is in retaliation for Iran’s massive Oct. 1 missile barrage on Israel.
Editor’s note: Check out our latest report linked here on the strikes after getting up to speed with this post.
“A few minutes ago, several explosions were heard in Tehran,” the official Fars news agency reported on Telegram.
Video shows explosions and strikes.
The IDF confirmed the attack.
“In response to months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the State of Israel—right now the Israel Defense Forces is conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran,” the IDF said on Twitter. “The regime in Iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking Israel since October 7th—on seven fronts—including direct attacks from Iranian soil. Like every other sovereign country in the world, the State of Israel has the right and the duty to respond. Our defensive and offensive capabilities are fully mobilized. We will do whatever necessary to defend the State of Israel and the people of Israel.”
Before the strike, Iranian officials said they would consider holding off on a response if Isreal limited its attacks to military bases.
“Four Iranian officials said in telephone interviews this week that the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ordered the military to devise multiple military plans for responding to an Israeli attack,” The New York Times reported. “The scope of any Iranian retaliation, they said, will largely depend on the severity of Israel’s attacks. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military preparations.”
If Israel sticks to its promise to U.S. President Joe Biden that it will launch a limited attack against military facilities and missile and drone warehouses, “Iran might do nothing,” the Times posited. Iran, however, will step up the escalation ladder and retaliate if there is widespread damage and high casualties.
“Iran will retaliate,” a source told The New York Times. “The officials said Ayatollah Khamenei had directed that a response would be certain if Israel strikes oil and energy infrastructure or nuclear facilities, or if it assassinates senior officials.
The officials, including two members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said that if Israel inflicted major harm, “the responses under consideration included a barrage of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles; escalated attacks by Iranian proxy militant groups in the region; and disrupting the flow of global energy supplies and shipping moving through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.”
Iranian officials are trying to thread the needle between not wanting to appear weak and not trigging a wider war.
IRGC commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami recently claimed Iran’s vast quantity of missiles and drones would overwhelm Israeli air defenses. That includes one of the U.S. Army’s seven prized Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries deployed to Israel.
Salami warned Israel not to rely on THAAD for protection, according to Iran’s official Tasnim News agency.
Salami “reminded the Zionists that they have counted upon a finite power,” he said, adding that Israel, with “98% of whose economy is dependent on sea, could head towards collapse instantly if it makes unwise decisions.”
The expected Israeli strike has U.S. regional allies like Saudi Arabia concerned that the conflict could spill over to the rest of the region. To assure one of those allies, Washington recently told Riyhad it is prepared to help defend the kingdom against any attack from Iran or its regional proxies, Bloomberg reported on Friday. Oil-producing Arab states fear being drawn into a war between Iran and Israel.
The Gulf states have expressed a measure of relief after receiving what the news organization described as a “tacit offer” presented by the Biden administration over the past few weeks. Bloomberg did not specify whether the assurance was given during U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trips to Saudi Arabia and Qatar earlier this week.
An unconfirmed Israeli media report claims that there is a new tranche of leaked classified documents pertaining to Israel’s plans to strike Iran.
“Additional documents, allegedly from the Pentagon, were leaked to the networks in the last day, in which the Israeli attack plan in Iran is described in detail,” Israel’s YNET media outlet reported on Friday.
While the documents purport to show deep insights into how Israel could carry out such a strike, The War Zone cannot independently verify their veracity. We reached out to the Pentagon to see if they can say whether the documents are real and if the information contained in them is accurate. We will update this story with any pertinent information provided.
Last week, there was a leak of a top-secret U.S. assessment about Israel’s war plans. Yesterday, a U.S. official pushed back on a Times of London story that Israel is delaying its expected retaliation strike against Iran because of the original leak.
“We have no indication that Israel is delaying any action because of the document leak,” a U.S. official told The War Zone Thursday morning. “Would steer you away from that.”
Update: 8:04 PM Eastern-
“The U.S. was informed beforehand and there is no U.S. involvement,” a U.S. defense official told The War Zone.
Update 8:16 PM Eastern –
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office released of him with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and other military officials in the IDF’s underground headquarters.
This is a developing story. We will be live-updating this post.
Update: 8:20 PM Eastern –
Official Iranian state media is reporting that “several military bases in the west and southwest of Tehran were the targets of [Israel’s] attack.”
Iran’s official IRNA news agency reports that Tehran’s air defenses were “successfully operated during the incident.” IRNA did not provide any additional details.
Update: 8:41 PM Eastern –
Israeli media is reporting a second wave of attacks is underway.
Iranian state TV reported that “some of the [explosion] sounds in West Tehran was the air defense system being activated.”
A video purporting to show Tehran residents lining up for gas appeared on social media.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s office released an image claiming to show the strikes on Iran, but they were from a 2021 Tehran refinery fire, the Times of Israel reported on Twitter.
Update: 8:59 PM Eastern –
The Israeli Maariv news outlet is reporting on Twitter that one of the targets of the Israeli response “is a military base for launching ballistic missiles.”
Over 100 fighter jets of the Air Force participated in the attack,” according to Maariv.
Iran has closed its airspace for the next 4.5 hours, according to a Notice To Airmen (NOTAM).
The IDF released a video from its underground command bunker. “Chief of Staff, Major General Herzi Halevi, is now commanding the attack on Iran from the Air Force Base in Kirya with the Air Force Commander, General Tomer Bar,” the IDF said on Twitter.
Israeli officials claim that the Iranian air defenses were completely ineffective.
“Total failure – zero interceptions,” Israeli officials say Iranian claims about air defense interceptions were untrue, according to a tweet from the Jerusalem Post.
Update: 9:12 PM Eastern –
A second wave of Israeli airstrikes was reported following blasts heard in the southern Iranian city of Shiraz, the Jerusalem Post reported.
“Five explosions were reported heard across Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj early on Saturday morning, according to Iranian media, in what is alleged to be the beginning of an Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran,” the publication reported. “Iran told AFP that it had not received any reports of injuries from the strikes.”
There were reports of “widespread internet outages across Iran as the attacks continued,” according to the Post.
“The IDF is currently attacking precise targets in Iran,” IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari said in a statement. “This is in response to persisting attacks by the Iranian regime on the State of Israel.”
However, Iranian media denies an attack on Shiraz, claiming the explosions were from their air defenses.
U.S. President Joe Biden has been briefed on the attack and is closely following events, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Update: 9:55 PM Eastern –
The Jerusalem Post has now reported that in addition to 100 aircraft being involved, including F-35Is, at least some of those planes had to fly 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles) to their targets. This appears to be the longest-range known strike by Israeli aircraft on Iran to date.
ABC News is reporting what while a second wave of Israeli strikes on Iran is ongoing, the operation is only expected to last one night.
Additional footage said to have been shot in Tehran in the course of the attacks has emerged.
Iraq has reportedly suspended all commercial flights in and out of the country’s airports.
U.S. Vice President and Democrat Party presidential candidate Kamala Harris has now also been briefed on the situation.
Update: 10:22 PM Eastern –
Israel’s strikes on Iran are expected to continue for a number of hours still as a target list including missile production and air defense sites is worked through, according to The Washington Post. Targeting Iranian air defense capabilities would in clearing the way for follow-on strikes.
Israel’s strikes had already reportedly been postponed more than once due to weather, which could also impede post-strike bomb damage assessment and combat search and rescue operations in the event of the loss of an aircraft. Imaging sensors that many Israeli munitions use to get to their targets could be impacted, as well.
NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), which provides near real-time active fire data via orbital infrared sensing, is showing what could be evidence of fires following Israeli strikes in Iran.
There were reports of a major GPS disruption centered on Tehran earlier this evening.
Update: 10:50 PM Eastern –
The sun is now starting to rise over Iran. Axios‘ Barak Ravid reports that at least three waves of Israeli strikes have taken place, with the first focusing on Iranian air defenses and the following two targeting missile and drone-related targets, citing U.S. and Israeli officials.
The New York Times is reporting that around 20 total sites were struck in the course of Israel’s operation against Iran.
Amid the ongoing reports of the ineffectiveness of Iran’s air defense network against Israel’s strikes, The War Zone‘s own Tyler Rogoway has highlighted the many factors at play.
Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization has announced a suspension of all commercial flights indefinitely.
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency is carrying a threat of retaliation against Israel over tonight’s strikes.
Update: 11:22 PM Eastern –
The IDF has now issued a release about its concluded strikes on Iran, which is as follows:
“A short while ago, the IDF completed precise and targeted strikes against military targets in a number of areas in Iran. Our planes have safely returned home.
The strike was conducted in response to the attacks by the Iranian regime against the State of Israel and its citizens in recent months. The retaliatory strike has been completed and the mission was fulfilled.
Based on intelligence, IAF aircraft struck missile manufacturing facilities used to produce the missiles that Iran fired at the State of Israel over the last year. These missiles posed a direct and immediate threat to the citizens of the State of Israel. Simultaneously, the IDF struck surface-to-air missile arrays and additional Iranian aerial capabilities, that were intended to restrict Israel’s aerial freedom of operation in Iran.
Iran fired hundreds of missiles directly toward the State of Israel during two attacks in April and October, and funds and directs terrorist activity through its terror proxies throughout the Middle East, in order to attack the State of Israel and its citizens.
Alongside Iran’s efforts to attack the State of Israel, Iran acts to undermine regional stability and security, and the global economy.
The IDF has a range of offensive operational capabilities, some of which were deployed today during the strikes on strategic assets deep within Iranian territory.
The State of Israel reserves the right to defend its citizens if the Iranian regime continues attacks against the State of Israel and its civilians.
The IDF is conducting ongoing situational assessments and is ready to conduct defensive and offensive action.
There is currently no change to the Home Front Defensive Guidelines. The public is asked to continue following the guidelines.”
Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder has also provided the following readout of a call tonight between U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant:
“Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant today to receive updates on the Israel Defense Forces’ strikes on military targets in Iran. Secretary Austin reaffirmed the ironclad commitment of the United States to Israel’s security and right to self-defense. The Secretary emphasized the enhanced force posture of the United States to defend U.S. personnel, Israel, and partners across the region in the face of threats from Iran and Iran-backed terrorist organizations and the U.S. determination to prevent any actor from exploiting tensions or expanding the conflict in the region.”
Update: 11:45 Eastern—
Video statement from IDF about the conclusion of its operation:
Israel carried out “a direct military response against Iran,” a senior U.S. official told reporters, including from The War Zone late Friday night. “Specifically, Israel conducted precision airstrikes against multiple military targets across Iran and outside populated terrorism. The United States was not a participant in its military operation.”
Biden and his national security team “of course worked with Israel, over recent weeks, to encourage Israel to conduct a response that is targeted and proportional with little rates of civilian harm. And that appears to have been precisely what transpired this evening,” the official continued.
The president “discussed the overall situation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, he encouraged the prime minister to design a response that served to deter further attacks against Israel while reducing rates of further installation. And that is our objective.”
The official offered a stern warning to Iran against responding to tonight’s attack.
“Should Iran choose to respond, we are fully prepared to once again defend against any attack,” said the official. We recently deployed a THAAD battery…to Israel, and we have worked to strengthen Israel’s air defense systems in the run-up to tonight’s response.”
Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris “have demonstrated clearly that we will always help defend Israel and secure its people and territories from Iran and its proxy terrorist groups. If Iran chooses to respond once again, we will be ready, and there will be consequences for Iran. However, we do not want to happen.”
“This should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Iran and Israel,” the official told reporters. “Israel has made clear to the world that its response is now complete. Accordingly, we will …press Iran to stop these attacks against Israel, so that we can move beyond this direct cycle of attacks.”
The U.S. is seeking an opportunity to end fighting in Lebanon and Gaza as well.
“Over the coming days, we are prepared to lead an effort to secure an end of the war in Lebanon through an agreement that allows civilians on both sides of the Blue Line to safely return home,” the official explained. “We are also prepared for a renewed effort to finally achieve a ceasefire in Gaza together with the return of hostages, which must happen without delay.”
The U.S. had no role in this attack, said the official, adding that the Israeli response “was extensive. It was targeted. It was precise. It was against military targets across Iran. It was in multiple ways, very carefully prepared. And again, it was designed to be effective. I will leave it though to the Israelis to characterize and provide more details, given that this was their military operation.”
The U.S. has been in contact with Iran both directly and through back channels to avoid miscommunications, said the official.
Pressed to explain what was meant by “designed to be effective,” the official said it was an “effect is to deter future attacks and also to degrade the capability of Iran being able to conduct those types of activity.”
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com