The rapid and sudden push south by anti-regime forces in Syria has caused a geopolitical quake throughout the region. The extremely complex situation, which includes a smattering of belligerents with their own alliances and bitter enemies, has in just a week’s time put Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad’s rule in jeopardy once again.
While the rebel factions that are pushing to unseat Assad once and for all still have a ways to go toward realizing that goal, the loss of territory in Syria’s northwestern regions is clearly a glaring concern for one of Assad’s chief benefactors — Russia. Assad’s reign does not have to end for Moscow to suffer a massive loss in Syria. Rebel forces just have to capture the country’s provinces on the Mediterranean where the prized Russian bases lie, and they are slowly getting closer to one of them by the hour. As seen in the map in the social media post below, there is already a real possibility that the area in question could be cut off from other regime-controlled portions of the country.
As we have reported on for years, Putin’s reward for backing Assad nearly a decade ago as his regime was under crushing threat after years of civil war was two critical bases — the Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia and the sprawling naval facility in the port of Tartus. In 2017, Russia was basically gifted these facilities, with Moscow signing a ’49-year lease’ on both of them. This gave Russia a master air base and a naval installation on the Mediterranean, the only such facilities under Russia’s control. From here, Moscow could project power along NATO’s southern flank and into the Middle East and Africa. And that is exactly what Moscow has done. Its naval forces have gained a warm-water port to support prolonged operations in the Mediterranean, along with an airfield capable of bedding down tactical and strategic airpower with the ability to strike in any direction and threaten NATO warships across the Mediterranean.
Russia’s naval port in Tartus supported Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, working as a node to transfer materiel from Syria to the war effort. Russia’s air base in Latakia not only had been used to pound anti-regime forces with heavy airstrikes for years, but it has supported Russia’s activities in Northern Africa and has hosted strategic strike and intelligence aircraft. In 2019, Putin triumphantly declared victory in Syria from this base. Suffice it to say that losing such a prize would be a disaster for the Kremlin, but that could become a real possibility.
Reports vary on exactly how close anti-regime forces are to Khmeimim Air Base. Some put them at under 20 miles away, but the situation is changing very rapidly in some areas. While 20 miles is still a decent buffer, the speed at which the offensive has penetrated certain areas has been somewhat remarkable. Still, it’s not like the base would just be abandoned on a whim. The installation has been seen as among the safest locales in the country during very intense fighting that punctuated the middle and late 2010s. Russian and Syrian regime forces would put up a major fight to retain control of it.
At the same time, this is not half a decade or more ago. Russian forces are stretched extremely thin at this time due to the ongoing nearly three-year-old war in Ukraine. Early on in that conflict, capabilities were placed in Syria for force protection and contingencies were realigned toward the war effort. This includes tactical airpower that had given the Assad regime the boost it needed to turn the tide of the Civil War. While Russian fighters and attack helicopters are still present at the base and have been active in slowing this current offensive, they are not deployed in the capacity they once were. Manpower, and the quality of it, is also of major concern. With all this in mind, just how well-equipped Russia is for dealing with a direct threat by rebel forces to the base isn’t clear. Still, there aren’t any indications that reinforcements are being poured into the installation or that capabilities are being evacuated, just in case. Recent satellite imagery shows little in the way of new activity at the installation.
Russia has built up Khmeimim Air Base extensively over the years, including many support structures, lengthened runways, expanded aprons, and aircraft shelters that came as a result of some of the first long-range drone strikes ever realized. Multiple anti-air systems are also installed there, potentially still including an S-400 battery that can threaten aircraft well out into the Eastern Mediterranean. Sensitive intelligence gathering and electronic warfare systems are also present at the base.
Tartus is roughly 30 miles to the south along Syria’s shore. This puts the port in a much more secure location, for the time being. Still, there are claims that the Russian Navy has evacuated its vessels from the facility. If this proves to be an enduring reality, it would be a big deal and would hamper Russia’s ability to sustain operations in Syria and across the region. At the same time, it looks as if these reports were premature, with a major naval exercise occurring in the area, including the firing of P800 Oniks anti-ship missiles via the Bastion shore defense system at a target vessel — a strangely publicized show of force at a very tumultuous time in the region. P800s can also be used against land targets and a Zircon hypersonic missile was also fired as part of the exercise, Russia claims.
There is also an elevated possibility of attacks on these facilities over standoff ranges by anti-regime forces, especially as they get their hands on more of the Syrian government’s military equipment. These include multiple rocket launch systems that could soon threaten Russia’s airfield. Drones also continue to be a major concern.
Whatever the case, Russia, as well as Iran, are clearly working to figure out how they can best keep Assad from losing more territory and turn the momentum in his favor on the battlefield. But Iran, too, is plagued with resource issues. Hezbollah, its top proxy, has been deeply degraded after months of fighting Israel. It is far more limited in weaponry, manpower, leadership, and command and control capabilities than it was just months ago. This limits how much the Iranians can help Assad via Hezbollah. Other Iranian-aligned militants in Syria are also under pressure as opposition forces open up offensives against the regime on all fronts. Iran is supplying the Houthis’ anti-shipping campaign in and around the Red Sea, which has gone on for more than a year now, as well.
Taken as a whole, the picture simply isn’t the same as it was in the last decade when it comes to external resources available to back Assad and keep his regime in power. Still, there is no immediate danger of Assad being ousted by rebel forces, although internal threats always exist. This could change in the weeks to come if Syrian government forces and their Russian and Iranian backers can’t put together a robust defense against further advances. We have already seen a major slowing of forward progress in some areas due to actions by Assad-aligned forces, but so much territory has already been seized so quickly. The slow-down could also help the rebels shore up their gains.
If indeed the situation continues to move in favor of the anti-Assad forces and they creep closer to Russia’s prized naval and air bases in Syria, exactly what Russia and the Syrian regime do in response will be monitored closely. Regardless, with resources scarce, concern has to be growing in Moscow about the safety of these critical facilities and what contingencies need to be in place to be ready to respond to rapidly changing circumstances.
Contact the author: Tyler@twz.com