Though the rapid momentum of the early days of its Kursk invasion has slowed considerably after 25 days, Ukraine is still on the offensive in several areas there. One of the big efforts is a push toward the city of Glushkovo.
Ukrainian forces are less than seven miles from that city, according to the latest map from DeepState, a Ukrainian open-source intelligence organization that has proven reliable in the past. Glushkovo is the last main bastion of defense for an estimated 3,000 troops trapped south of the Seim River, which runs through Glushkovo.
“The situation in the Glushkovo district remains difficult,” the Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel stated Saturday. “Ukrainian formations continue to strike at the defensive lines and supply routes of the Russian Armed Forces, and are also preparing for a possible offensive in the area.”
Ukraine can either attack the city directly or try to cut it off and bypass it from the south.
As part of that effort, Ukraine has continued its whack-a-mole approach toward the pontoon bridges Russia is building to temporarily replace the spans destroyed by Ukraine. The video below shows a strike by an M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS on one such ad hoc crossing.
Bridging equipment has also been a big target for Ukraine, as you can see in the column of destroyed support vehicles in the video below. It ends with a view of another destroyed pontoon bridge.
The Ukrainian Air Force released a video showing crews loading Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range precision-guided bombs, or JDAM-ERs onto a MiG-29 Fulcrum. The video ends with scenes of the munitions flowing up portions of bridges over the Seim River. JDAM-ER and French HAMMER guided bombs, both with a range of dozens of miles, have been key to severing Russia’s established river crossings
Ukraine is trying to push elsewhere in Kursk as well, attacking near the city of Korenevo, which is on the northern edge of territory controlled by Ukraine, according to DeepState.
In the southernmost area of the salient, Ukrainian forces are pushing east of Borki, the DeepState map shows. There is also a five-mile deep “grey zone” over much of the northwestern and western parts of the salient, where fighting continues and no one has gained control.
Russian troops are “wiping” the Ukrainian-captured town of Sudzha “off the face of the earth,” Oleksandr Pavliuk, commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces, said on Aug. 31, according to the Kyiv Independent.
Russia is regularly shelling Sudzha and attacking it with guided aerial bombs and kamikaze drones according to Pavliuk.
For the 25th day in a row, the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) said it is repelling the invasion.
“The units of the Sever Group of Forces supported by Army Aviation and artillery have repelled six attacks launched by enemy assault detachments in the direction of Borki, Bakhtinka, Komarovka, Malaya Loknya, and Matveyevka,” the MoD claimed on Telegram. “In addition, attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to launch attacks in the direction of Korenevo and Malaya Loknya have been foiled.”
Ukrainian officials offered no specifics about the situation in Kursk today. In his evening address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his forces “continue to replenish the exchange fund for Ukraine and push the war into Russian territory. The resilience of each of our units, the precision of our warriors and the strong decisions of our partners are equally crucial. I thank all our combat brigades!”
On Friday, Col.-Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said his troops have advanced more than another square mile and have established control of an additional three square miles of territory.
The 80th Separate Mechanized Brigade said it captured seven Russian tanks in Kursk. That includes one T-90M, four T-80 BVMs, and two T-72s. Some of these tanks are nearly new, having just come off the assembly line, while others require repairs.
In his first reaction to Ukraine’s invasion of Russia, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told German weekly Welt am Sonntag that it is legitimate and covered by Kyiv’s right to self-defense.
“Ukraine has a right to defend itself. And according to international law, this right does not stop at the border,” Stoltenberg told the paper, adding that NATO had not been informed about Ukraine’s plans beforehand and did not play a role in them.
Whether Ukraine can continue its push toward Glushkovo amid the many other challenges it faces, including the looming Russian capture of the key Donetsk Oblast city of Pokrovsk, remains to be seen. They’ve gained very little ground in that direction over the past several days. However, there appears to be no immediate end in sight for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Kursk operation.
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Russia continues to push closer to Pokrovsk, an important Ukrainian logistics hub. They are now about seven miles from the city, according to the latest DeepState map.
The largest amount of fighting continues to take place around that city, the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff said on Facebook.
“Since the beginning of the day, the occupiers have already made 23 attempts to defeat our defenders from occupied positions in the areas of seven different settlements. The most fighting, almost half, passed near Novogrodivka.”
Ukraine’s efforts to defend the embattled city of Pokrovsk suffered because of decisions to attack Russian forces rather than build defenses, a volunteer with Ukraine’s 24th Separate Assault Battalion claimed. One main fault in that strategy is that Russia had huge reserves to bring to the fight.
“In the Pokrovsky direction, the reserves of enemy infantry exceed the reserves in the Bakhmutsky direction during active offensive operations in the winter of 2023,” Stanislav Bunyatov said on Telegram.
“As you can see, the Russians have no limits, the biggest mistake was to bet on the destruction of as many Russian infantry as possible and to neglect the development of defensive fortifications,” added Stanislav, who uses the call sign Osman.
Still, this is hardly a cakewalk for Russians, who are suffering a large amount of casualties and equipment losses in this fight,
The remaining residents of that city are under orders to evacuate, with many carrying belongings and leaving by train.
Yesterday we told you that Zelensky fired his Air Force commander in the wake of the loss of an F-16 and its revered pilot, Oleksiy Mes, call sign Moonfish. Before Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleschuk was dismissed, there were claims that Moonfish was shot down by a Patriot air defense battery. While Zelensky didn’t say why he made the change, there are new indications the friendly fire claim could be accurate.
“A Western official who has been briefed on the preliminary investigation of the crash said that there were ‘indications’ that friendly fire from a Patriot missile battery might have brought down the jet, though mechanical failure and pilot error have not been ruled out,” The New York Times reported on Saturday.
A joint effort by two media organizations that developed a unique method of tabulating Russian troop deaths in Ukraine has released a new tally.
The latest report compiled by the independent Russian Mediazona outlet and the BBC News Russian service states that at least 66,000 Russian soldiers have been killed during the fighting. Working with a team of volunteers, the news outlets “maintain a named list of deceased Russian military personnel. This list is compiled from verified, publicly available sources, including social media posts by family members, local news reports, and official announcements from regional authorities.”
The death toll to date is probably much higher, the outlets acknowledge because it is based only on verifiable deaths. Other tabulations, which are estimates, say nearly twice as many Russian troops have been killed.
“This list is not exhaustive, as not every military death becomes public knowledge,” according to the report.
Getting verifiable casualty numbers in this conflict is difficult. For instance, in August 2023, The New York Times reported Russia’s military casualties were approaching 300,000.
“The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops,” the publication reported, citing U.S. officials. “The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.”
There has been a lot more combat over the past year, with mounting Russian casualties, especially in Donetsk Oblast, so U.S. estimates have likely climbed far higher.
In an interview with CNN, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said the Biden administration is still considering his request to lift restrictions on Ukraine using long-range weapons to strike deeper inside Russian territory. He confirmed he’d presented a list of targets in meetings with senior officials in Washington on Friday.
“We have explained what kind of capabilities we need to protect the citizens against the Russian terror that Russians are causing us, so I hope we were heard,” Umerov said in an interview with CNN’s Alex Marquardt on “The Situation Room.”
Despite repeated requests from Zelensky, the US is not currently expected to loosen restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S.-produced Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles.
“You’ve heard us say that the Ukrainians can use U.S. security assistance to defend themselves from cross-border attacks, in other words counterfire. But as it relates to long-range strike, deep strikes into Russia, our policy has not changed,” said Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon’s top spokesman, told reporters on Tuesday.
The Biden administration nixed an appeal by the military to have American contractors work in Ukraine maintaining Western-donated war equipment – including F-16 Vipers, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The proposal was shot down over safety concerns, the publication reported, citing U.S. officials.
“The debate over sending American civilians to a country battling Russian forces to help maintain Western equipment has been ongoing since the early days of the war, but has recently become more critical with the long-awaited arrival of F-16s in Ukraine,” the Journal noted.
The first six of a promised 80 Vipers arrived in Ukraine at the end of July, one of which is now destroyed.
The National Security Council “looked at the proposal for sending civilian contractors into Ukraine to maintain F-16 jet fighters and other military weaponry, but the intelligence community and others deemed it too risky for now,” the Journal stated, citing “officials familiar with the discussion.” Instead, “the hope is that European countries will take on more—and perhaps all—of the responsibility for maintaining the F-16s.”
Germany announced its latest tranche of military aid for Ukraine.
It includes one IRIS-T SLS air defense system, 26 “Vector” reconnaissance drones, one Bergepanzer 2 recovery vehicle, six engineer excavators, 14,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition, and 10 uncrewed surface vessels, among other items.
Switzerland is rethinking its 500-year-old policy of neutrality over concerns about Russian aggression in Europe and the loss of revenue from arms sales, Politico reports, citing a major new Swiss study.
“Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, neutrality has once again become the subject of political debate, both at home and abroad. Pressure on Switzerland to clarify its position is growing,” according to the report, which calls for a “revision” of its neutrality policy.
Threats from Russia have changed Europe’s security landscape, causing Switzerland to consider deeper military ties with alliances like NATO and the European Union. Beyond that, the nation’s policy of banning arms sales to war zones has an increasingly negative financial impact.
Switzerland’s arms exports fell last year by 27% to less than 700 million Swiss francs ($823 million) compared to 2022 — due both to strict arms export provisions and to the one-off effect of Qatar ending air defense systems purchases tied to its hosting of the 2022 World Cup, according to Politico.
As we noted in a previous report about German-made Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (SPAAGs ), there is a significant question about sourcing ammunition for their Swiss-made 35mm cannons. Bern, which has significant stocks of shells for them, has repeatedly refused to allow the re-export of 35mm rounds from various countries to Ukraine citing a policy of neutrality in regard to the conflict. This has become such an issue that the German government announced in February 2023 that it had signed a deal with domestic defense contractor Rheinmetall to restart production of 35mm ammunition.
Days after Russia launched its largest aerial barrage of the war, they bombed Kharkiv City, hitting a residential building and a playground on Friday. The attack killed seven people and injured at least 77 more, local authorities said, according to Reuters. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensk said a 14-year-old girl was among the dead.
The terrifying power of a Russian missile, most likely an Iskander, is seen in the video below. It shows the munition strike a building in Kryvyi Rih, Zelensky’s hometown, and the ensuing eruption of flames and billows of gray-black smoke. The attack injured at least five people, Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration Serhiy Lysak said on Telegram.
Meanwhile, Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, which borders Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, came under fire once again, said its regional governor.
At least five people were killed, many more were injured and several buildings were damaged by a Ukrainian RM-70 Vampire MLRS barrage on the Russian city of Belgorod and elsewhere in the oblast, Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed on Telegram.
“One woman and four men died on the spot from their injuries before the ambulance arrived,” he said. “I express my sincere condolences to the families and friends of the victims, although I understand that no words can console in such grief.”
In addition, “37 civilians were injured, including six children,” he added. “Seven adults and three children are in serious condition. All victims were taken to medical institutions in Belgorod. All necessary assistance is being provided.”
You can see what Gladkov claimed was one of those rockets striking a Belgorod roadway, hitting a vehicle, and setting it ablaze. Other motorists swerved out of the way to avoid damage.
Two oil facilities in Russia attacked by Ukrainian drones are still burning.
The Atlas fuel depot in the Kamensky district of Rostov Oblast is still in flames four days after being attacked.
Elsewhere in Rostov Oblast, the Proletarsk fuel facility continues to burn 13 days after being attacked.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he will never order the Belarusian military to engage in battles outside the country. His statement came as he has troops and equipment amassed along the border with Ukraine.
“There have not been and will not be any orders to go outside our country. We will only go to war when they come to us with bad intentions,” he said, according to the official Belarusian BelTA news agency. Lukashenko made the statement when speaking about the Ukrainian crisis.
“What I read makes me feel bad,” he explained. “These reviews of the world’s news media: ‘Lukashenko this, Lukashenko that. If he gives an order, they will go in there.”
Russia keeps sending one-way attack drones against Ukrainian cities and power infrastructure and the Ukrainian Air Force says most are swatted down.
You can watch the pilot of a MiG-29 Fulcrum take out a drone with an infrared-guided R-73 (AA-11 Archer) short-range air-to-air missile in the following video.
The video below shows the interception of one such drone by an air defense munition. Its type cannot be definitively ascertained.
Seeking cover from an enemy attack has become vastly more difficult in the age of first-person view (FPV) drones. In the following video, a Russian soldier tried to seek shelter from an approaching drone by running into a building and ducking around a corner. That didn’t help him, because the drone followed him to his hiding place and exploded.
In addition to hunting down and striking enemy vehicles and troops, FPV drones proliferating the battlefield also create a suppressive effect. As you can see and hear in the next video, the chilling high-pitched whine of an FPV drone keeps this soldier head down seeking cover.
Bracing for another attack, Russia installed Pantsir-S1 air defense systems near the Kerch Bridge. Ukrainian officials have oft stated their intention of destroying Vladimir Putin’s prized $4 billion span linking Russia with the Crimean peninsula it occupies.
“It’s not a question of will we strike or won’t we strike,” Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told us in an exclusive interview last fall. “We’re doing that regularly so we will finish it. It’s just an issue of time.”
Asked what Putin would do if that happened, Budanov flashed his dark humor.
“He’ll get upset once again,” Budanov said. “What can he do?”
Ukraine may be planning a counterattack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel suggested.
“This time we decided to clearly analyze what the new plan of the Ukrainian command might be: unlike last year’s attempt at an offensive, the enemy is preparing for a possible attack in the west of the region – there, after taking Vasilyevka , the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have the opportunity to advance both towards Zaporizhzhya NPP and Tokmak,” Rybar posited.
“As we have already noted, the Ukrainian command’s plans are indicated by the increased satellite photography of Russian Armed Forces facilities and the simultaneous concentration of forces in the direction of Primorskoye” Ryber continued. “According to various estimates, up to four brigades could have accumulated there at the moment – they could be the ones to be used as the strike force.”
While it is unknown when and where Ukraine might put this plan into action, Rybar said it “has not abandoned the offensive on this section of the front, even despite the worsening operational crisis of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk , Aleksandro – Kalinovsk , and Yuzhno-Donetsk directions.
Ukrainian forces captured a rare Russian Merlin-VR reconnaissance drone. Introduced in 2021, the drone can fly up to 16,000 feet. This is only the second reported loss of this type of drone, according to the Oryx open-source tracking group. However, that figure could be higher because Oryx only tabulates losses for which it has visual confirmation.
Former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Popov was detained Thursday in connection with a fraud case, according to The Associated Press, He is the latest high-profile arrest in what appears to be a sweeping investigation into abuse of office in Russia’s military leadership.
Popov faces up to 10 years in prison if convicted, the AP reported, citing Russian news outlets. He was ordered held until at least Oct. 29.
The case against Popov relates to business activities at a sprawling park in Moscow sometimes called Russia’s “military Disneyland.”
“Patriot Park, a pet project of former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, is designed to inspire national pride in younger generations and showcases Soviet and Russian weaponry,” the AP reported. “It has a firing range, air base, museums and conference center and a massive, khaki-colored Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces, which features mosaics of Soviet and Russian soldiers. President Vladimir Putin personally donated money to commission the main icon for the church, according to the Kremlin.”
The FSB said it had detained two Colombian citizens for fighting on Ukraine’s side, Politico reported. It was the first such case made public since the beginning of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion.
“The extradition and arrest is likely designed to spook other foreigners who might consider joining Ukraine’s armed forces, as well as underscoring Russia’s alliance with countries such as strongman leader Nicolás Maduro’s Venezuela,” the publication wrote.
The two men, Alexander Ante and José Aron Medina, joined a foreign legion in Ukraine in the summer of 2023, local Colombian and other Spanish-language media reported.
And finally, Russia dropped its newest recruiting video. It’s a glitzy effort aimed at convincing ice cream-slurping, tattoo-clad, fingernail-painted young men to give up their lives of luxury to join the military and fight in Ukraine.
That’s it for now.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com