Seven months after Ukraine captured Sudzha in the surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk region, its hold on this key city appears to be nearing an end. While one Russian media outlet claims Sudzha has fallen, Ukrainian military sources we spoke with, as well as Russian and Ukrainian media and Telegram channels, say there is still fighting going on there, though the prospects for Ukraine keeping the city aren’t good.
The loss of Sudzha, located less than six miles from the border, would mark a major turning point because it sits along an important supply route and has served as a key staging area and command and control node for Ukraine’s forces. Its precarious status raises the question of just how much longer this incursion can last, as both Ukrainian and Russian sources say Moscow’s troops have retaken several towns in Kursk over the past 24 hours. You can read more about the Russian effort to enter Sudzha through an abandoned gas pipeline in our recent story here.
“Russian Armed Forces have taken full control of Sudzha,” the Russian SHOT media outlet reported, “from the ground. Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters have left the city. As we have learned, there is currently a small number of Ukrainian troops in the city, but they are all retreating. Some of them managed to take cover before the HIMARS MLRS shelling from the Sumy region, the rest were killed or wounded during the fighting.”
Ukrainian and Georgian sources tell us that the fighting in Sudzha is ongoing.
“Ukrainian troops have not yet retreated from Sudzha city,” a retired high-ranking Ukrainian officer told The War Zone Wednesday morning. “Fighting is going on at the western and northern parts of the city right now.”
“There are still some Ukrainian troops there,” Mamuka Mamulashvili, commander of the Georgian Legion, told us. He estimated that Ukrainian forces still hold about a third of the roughly 500 square miles of Kursk they held at the peak of its invasion. However, an infographic from Voice of America, which you can see below, suggests Ukraine’s salient is even smaller.
The Ukrainian and Georgian comments line up with assessments by a member of the Ukrainian parliament’s defense committee and the Ukrainian DeepState open-source collective that the situation in Sudhza is difficult for Ukraine, but fighting continues. These statements come in the wake of a Telegram channel linked to Russian paratroopers claiming its forces have occupied at least the center of Sudzha.
“Paratroopers display Russian and Airborne Forces flags on Sudzha’s central square,” the Russian_Airborne Telegram channel wrote. “There’s very little time left until the Kursk region is completely liberated.”
Neither the Russian nor Ukrainian Defense Ministries (MoD) commented specifically about Sudzha on Wednesday morning.
Russia’s MoD reported the capture of five more villages on Wednesday, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “the dynamics are good.”
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the issue of his troops’ presence in Kursk, saying they will continue battling despite intense Russian pressure.
“‘The military command is doing what it should do, preserving the maximum of lives of our soldiers,’” Zelensky said, urging a ‘sober’ assessment of the battlefield situation rather than reacting to Russian information warfare,” the Kyiv Independent wrote on Wednesday.
Russia has poured tens of thousands of its own troops and about 12,000 North Korean soldiers into Kursk to dislodge Ukrainian forces. While Ukraine was steadily losing territory there, the biggest push came last week after the U.S. cut off intelligence support and arms supplies to Ukraine following a White House blowout between Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Several sources told us that the move played a big role in Russia’s recent Kursk advances.
The U.S. on Tuesday resumed providing Ukraine with intelligence products like satellite imagery as well as weaponry after the two nations agreed on a plan for a 30-day ceasefire. Maxar on Wednesday confirmed to us that they are once giving Ukraine access to its images.
The ceasefire agreement must still gain the approval of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which seems unlikely.
Whether the resumption of Washington’s support for Kyiv will help its fight in Kursk remains an open question.
Ian Matveev, an antiwar Russian military analyst, suggested the end of this operation is at hand.
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces are leaving the Kursk region – today it will be completely liberated,” he stated Wednesday on X. “It is also clear that the Ukrainians have preserved their main forces and have not allowed the defeat at the Kursk bridgehead. The operation that began seven months ago is ending.”
The Ukrainian and Georgian sources we spoke with offered a different take.
“My guess is that we will stay there as long as the security situation will allow,” the retired Ukrainian officer told us. “I guess resumption of intel should be a helpful tool for the Ukrainian bridgehead in Kursk.”
Mamulashvili, the Georgian Legion commander, said his forces were actively reinforcing the Kursk salient.
“We have not left yet, but it does not look good,” Mamulashvili posited.
While the future of Kursk remains unclear, there are indications that Ukraine is making small gains in the eastern part of its country, with advances in both the Pokrovsk area and Toretsk.
All this comes as negotiations over a peace deal are underway between Washington and Moscow, with Zelensky having previously stated that the Kursk salient was a bargaining chip in any such talks. Whether that remains the case is now an open question as Ukraine’s presence in Russia is shrinking and may soon be completely evaporated in the coming days.
Update: 3:36 PM Eastern –
Putin, wearing a military uniform, visited Kursk for the first time since Ukraine invaded and held a meeting at one of the military’s command posts there. Here are some highlights of Putin’s comments during that visit, according to the official Russian RIA Novosti media outlet:
- In the near future, the task is to finally defeat Ukraine, which has dug in in the Kursk region, and completely liberate the region.
- Those who oppose Russia in the Kursk region are terrorists.
- The enemies taken prisoner in the Kursk region must be treated as terrorists.
- Foreign mercenaries are not covered by the Convention on the Treatment of Prisoners of War.
- All those who find themselves in captivity must be treated humanely.
- The territory of the Kursk region must be completely liberated from Ukrainian forces in the near future.
- Proposed creating a security zone along the state border.
- Thanked the General Staff leadership and troops for the work done in the Kursk region.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com