The U.S. is pushing back against a claim made by The Times of London that Israel is delaying its expected retaliation strike against Iran because of the leak of a U.S. assessment of its war plans.
“We have no indication that Israel is delaying any action because of the document leak,” a U.S. official told The War Zone Thursday morning. “Would steer you away from that.”
Top secret documents leaked from the U.S. National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA) appeared last week on a pro-Iranian Telegram channel. They offered details about Israel’s advanced preparations for a large-scale strike in retaliation for the Oct. 1 Iranian missile barrage. The U.S. has not disputed their authenticity. It is possible Iran has obtained other documents not yet disclosed and it could signify a longer-term leak of information that remains unquantified, at least publicly.
“The leak of the American documents delayed the attack due to the need to change certain strategies and components,” an “intelligence source with knowledge of Israeli deliberations” told The Times of London. “There will be a retaliation, but it has taken longer than it was supposed to take.”
Many factors can play into a military operation’s timeline, especially an unprecedented one that would be highly complex and stretch Israel’s long-range strike abilities. More basic elements are also important, including weather and moon states that are favorable to the operation and
Israel “is concerned the leak could help Iran predict certain patterns of attack,” according to the publication. “It has been forced to develop an alternative plan, one that requires detailed war gaming before any order is given, The Times understands.”
The Netanyahu government has told the U.S. it won’t strike Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, the Washington Post reported. Instead, it will likely strike military targets.
The Biden administration is working feverishly to tamp down tensions. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that Israel’s retaliation should not lead to greater escalation.
Unlike the last rounds of attacks the two nations carried out against each other, an Israeli strike against Iran is likely to receive a quick response, setting off what could be a prolonged direct conflict between the long-time enemies. The video below shows Iranian missiles launching against Israel on Oct. 1.
Meanwhile, Israel is continuing its fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
Israeli aircraft “pounded Beirut’s southern suburbs with strikes overnight, and six buildings were destroyed in the Laylaki neighborhood,” The Washington Post reported, citing Lebanese state media.
The IDF said it “conducted intelligence-based strikes on several weapons storage and manufacturing facilities belonging to the Hezbollah terrorist organization in the area of Dahieh, a key Hezbollah terrorist stronghold in Beirut.”
The IDF also claims to have found weapons, ammunition, and food supplies in a tunnel and several underground storage facilities during recent raids in southern Lebanon.
In one raid, “the troops discovered an underground hideout intended to be used by ‘Radwan Forces’ terrorists in their plan ‘Conquer the Galilee,” the IDF stated on Telegram. “In the hideout, the troops located bunk beds, storage cabinets, food supplies, infrastructure for long-term stay, a large amount of equipment, weapons, and launch positions left behind by the terrorists.”
Israeli troops located “four enemy weapons storage facilities, some of which were placed in civilian homes,” the IDF said. “The storage facilities contained a large number of weapons, including AK-47 rifles, ammunition, rockets, mortars, shoulder-fired missiles, RPGs, and advanced anti-tank missiles. All of the weapons were confiscated.”
In addition, “a tunnel was found inside a civilian house, which served as a weapons storage facility in a village in southern Lebanon,” the IDF claimed on Telegram. “The troops located numerous weapons, terrorist infrastructure, and equipment intended to allow the terrorists to remain there for a long time. At the beginning of the recent targeted raids, the underground tunnel and enemy compounds were dismantled by the brigade and divisional engineering forces.”
Elsewhere in southern Lebanon, “the soldiers raided military structures, including a hotel that served as cover for Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure,” the IDF stated. “Inside, a weapons storage facility was found and dismantled, containing hundreds of anti-tank missile launcher positions and missiles that had been used to launch attacks on Galilee communities in recent months.”
A video released by the IDF purports to show a Hezbollah fighter being killed in an airstrike while recovering a surveillance drone that had been launched at Israel.
“Approximately 50 projectiles were identified crossing from Lebanon into Israeli territory,” the IDF claimed. “Some of the projectiles were intercepted and fallen projectiles were identified.”
The war in Gaza that started with the Oct. 7 Hamas incursion into southern Israel rages on, but efforts continue to create a cease-fire. More than 1,200 Israelis were killed in that attack and more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed during Israel’s massive military response.
Blinken said Israel had accomplished its objective of “effectively dismantling” Hamas, and that negotiations over a cease-fire and the release of dozens of Israeli hostages would resume in the coming days, The Associated Press reported.
Speaking to reporters in Qatar, which has served as a key mediator between Israel and Hamas, Bliken said negotiators would reconvene “in the coming days,” AP reported.
“What we really have to determine is whether Hamas is prepared to engage,” he said on his 11th visit to the region since the start of the war.
The U.S. “hopes to renew the negotiations after Israeli forces killed top Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza last week, but neither side has shown any sign of moderating its demands from months of negotiations that sputtered to a halt over the summer,” the wire service stated.
Blinken also announced an additional $135 million in U.S. aid to the Palestinians, while again urging Israel to allow more assistance to enter the territory.
As Blinken was delivering that message, Israel struck a school where displaced people were sheltering in the central Gaza Strip. The attack “killed at least 17 people on Thursday, nearly all women and children,” the AP reported, citing Palestinian medical officials.
“Another 42 people were wounded in the strike in the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp,” the AP added, citing the Awda Hospital, which received the casualties. “Among the dead were 13 children under the age of 18 and three women, according to the hospital’s records.”
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) “conducted a strike on Hamas terrorists who were operating inside a command and control center in the area of Nuseirat,” the IDF claimed on Telegram without offering proof. “The command and control center, which was embedded inside a compound that previously served as the ‘Shuhada’ al-Nuseirat’ School, was used by the terrorists to plan and execute terrorist attacks against IDF troops and the State of Israel.”
Al Jazeera said it conducted an investigation showing the extent to which the U.S. and U.K. have gone in support of Israel.
The news outlet said an analysis of open-source flight tracking data showed over 6,000 military flights in a year, with hundreds transporting arms to Israel. Israel conducted only 20% of the 1,600 reconnaissance flights, while the U.K. was responsible for nearly half using Shadow R1 surveillance aircraft. The U.K. also provided targeting data during 645 flights.
“More than 1,200 military cargo flights made up the airlift over a year several bases in Europe were used with hundreds of flights from each from the UK, Germany, Italy, Cyprus and Greece,” Al Jazeera claimed. “It is this air bridge, together with a vast number of surveillance flights and air-to-air refueling that has sustained Israel’s brutal war on Gaza and how to expand its operations into southern Lebanon.”
The U.K. MoD said it is not participating in the Israel-Hamas war.
“Our mandate is narrowly defined to focus on securing the release of the hostages only, including British nationals, with the RAF routinely conducting unarmed flights since December 2023 for this sole purpose,” the MoD told us in a statement. “As a matter of principle, we only provide intelligence to our allies where we are satisfied that it will be used in accordance with International Humanitarian Law, and in this instance only information relating to hostage rescue is passed to the Israeli authorities.”
The surveillance flights in question “only operate over Israel, Gaza and in international airspace and all data collected is solely used to support hostage rescue,” according to the MoD. “No RAF flights have transported lethal cargo to the Israeli Defence Forces. We will not comment further on detailed intelligence matters to protect operational security.”
We also reached out to the Pentagon and are awaiting a reply. We will update this story with any pertinent information provided.
The IDF, meanwhile disclosed “intelligence information and numerous documents found in the Gaza Strip confirming the military affiliation of six Al Jazeera journalists in Gaza with Hamas and the (Palestinian) Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist organizations.”
“The documents include personnel tables, lists of terrorist training courses, phone directories, and salary documents for terrorists,” the IDF claimed on Telegram. “These provide unequivocal proof that these individuals serve as military operatives for the terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip.”
They “serve as proof of the integration of Hamas terrorists within the Qatari Al Jazeera media network,” the IDF added. “Most of the journalists that the IDF has exposed as operatives in Hamas’s military wing spearhead the propaganda for Hamas at Al Jazeera, especially in the northern Gaza Strip.”
The War Zone cannot independently verify the veracity of those documents.
“Al Jazeera has strongly rejected a claim by the Israeli military that six of its journalists based in Gaza are members of the Palestinian groups Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ),” the network said in response to the allegations. “The media network on Wednesday vehemently condemned the ‘unfounded allegations’ by the Israeli army, which in a post on X described some of the named Al Jazeera Arabic correspondents as ‘operatives’ working for Hamas’s armed wing to promote the group’s ‘propaganda’ in the besieged and bombarded enclave.”
That’s it for now.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com