A new Russian offensive to gain territory in Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv regions is underway, but has yet to capture much territory. Despite having amassed tens of thousands of troops on the border, Moscow doesn’t have the resources to get very far, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told The War Zone exclusively on Monday.
While Russian forces are in Sumy near the border, “we don’t observe enough Russian troops to capture Sumy City,” about 15 miles from the border, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told us. “But they try to push our troops near the border.”
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on April 13 but did not advance, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, announced last month that Russian troops had entered the Sumy region. The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) later claimed control over several populated areas, including the village of Novenkoye, as well as the villages of Basovka and Veselovka. That advance came from Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine maintains a small presence after invading in August.
Earlier this month, Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said the Russian spring offensive “already begun.” The offensive is aimed largely at the border regions of Sumy and Kharkiv and was evident in increased fighting.
Russian military personnel are planning to encircle Sumy city, the BBC reported, citing a source in the Ukrainian General Staff.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces believe that Russia intends to create a “buffer zone” in this region through “an encirclement or semi-encirclement of Sumy,” a source in the Ukrainian General Staff added.
“The number of offensive actions by the Russians more than doubled and was the largest since the beginning of the year” starting last month, BBC Ukraine noted last week. “If at the beginning of March there were about 100 per day, then by the end of the month more than 200 clashes were recorded. As of early April, the average figure is at the level of 150-160.”
Despite the increase in clashes across the front lines, Russia is not making major gains in Kharkiv for the same lack of resources, Budanov said. Even in Donetsk, Russia doesn’t have the means to achieve significant advances, he added.
“Donetsk is a better situation for them,” Budanov said. “But still, they don’t have enough troops right now to [advance past] the administrative borders. They can only perform tactical movement.”
“More combat actions are conducted in the Donetsk region,” Budanov added.
Budanov’s comments echo those made last week by Col. Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine for Military Affairs.
“There are signs that the Russian group is preparing to intensify hostilities in several directions,” he told reporters. “Of course, the Russians have resources. But I have doubts whether they are enough to achieve significant successes, especially at the operational level.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to maintain a small presence of troops in Russia’s Belgorod region to help protect Sumy and Kharkiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated last week.
Russia’s offensive comes against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to foster a wider ceasefire and ultimately a peace deal. Both sides are jockeying for more land to better their position at the bargaining table, but neither is making real gains.
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Overall there have been few gains across 600 miles of frontlines in Ukraine and additional territory inside Russia. Here are the key takeaways from the latest Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessment.
- Kursk: Russian forces continued efforts to push Ukrainian forces from remaining positions in Kursk Oblast on April 13, but did not make any confirmed advances.
- Kharkiv: Russian forces recently marginally advanced northeast of Kharkiv City.
- Luhansk: Russian forces advanced near Borova, but did not make any confirmed gains toward Lyman or Kupiansk.
- Donetsk: Russian forces recently advanced south of Chasiv Yar. However, they did not make any confirmed gains northeast of Siversk near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove or Velyka Novosilka.
- Kherson: Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations in the Dnipro direction on April 12 and 13 but did not advance.
- Zaporizhzhia: Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations northwest of Robotyne near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, and Stepove on April 12 and 13 but did not advance.
The U.S. has offered a new proposal for Ukrainian mineral rights, according to documents reviewed by The New York Times. It reverts back to Trump’s initial demand that Ukraine repay the United States for the billions it has received in military and financial aid since Russia’s invasion three years ago.
The Times report came as a Ukrainian delegation was in Washington on Friday for a new round of talks about a deal that would give the United States a major stake in Ukraine’s natural resources.
The new proposal “includes stricter terms than earlier drafts: Washington would claim all profit from the fund until Kyiv repaid at least the equivalent of the U.S. aid received during the war plus four percent annual interest,” the Times reported.
The U.S. also would retain a “right of first offer” on new projects and the power to veto sales of Ukrainian resources to third countries, according to the publication. Ukraine would be prohibited from offering any investment projects to third parties with better financial or economic terms than those offered to the United States during the first year of the agreement.
The fund would be controlled by the International Development Finance Corporation, a U.S. government agency responsible for investing in companies and projects abroad. The agency would nominate three board members — while Ukraine would have only two — and would oversee each project where earnings from the fund are invested.
Nations supporting Ukraine pledged donations of nearly $24 billion in military aid during a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), held in Brussels last week. The group, created by former U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and now co-chaired by U.K. and Germany, is made up of some 50 countries providing security assistance to Kyiv.
“The new pledges of military aid announced today through the UDCG total over 21 billion euros ($23.93 billion). [This is] a record boost in military funding for Ukraine. And we are also surging that support to the frontline fight,” U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey said at a post-meeting press conference.
Healey added that the U.K. would spend 4.5 billion pounds (about $5.9 billion) this year in military support for Ukraine, that nation’s highest-ever level, Ukrinform reported. The U.K. announced the allocation of 350 million pounds (about $459 million) “to provide direct support to military personnel on the front line,” the publication reported. “This package includes radar systems, anti-tank mines, thousands of new drones, as well as an additional 150 million pounds (about $197 million) to repair and maintain battlefield equipment in Ukraine. This will help restore about 3,000 Ukrainian vehicles that could be put back into the fight against Putin.” Norway kicked in an additional 100 million Pounds (about $131 million) for that package.
Germany announced it will provide Ukraine with four new IRIS-T surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs), 300 IRIS-T effectors, 30 Patriot effectors, 120 man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), hundreds of drones and dozens of armored vehicles, including 15 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks, and 130,000 155mm artillery shells among other items.
“Given Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine, we must concede peace in Ukraine appears to be out of reach in the immediate future,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said at the news conference. “We will ensure that Ukraine continues to benefit from our joint military support. Russia needs to understand that Ukraine is able to go on fighting, and we will support it.”
During the UDCG meeting, the Netherlands pledged €150 million (about $170 million) for I-HAWK air defense systems for Ukraine, the Dutch Defense Ministry announced at the time.
“Two weeks ago, I saw with my own eyes the massive destruction of Russian air strikes in Dnipro,” Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said. “Innocent civilians and children are targeted every day. These systems save lives and are therefore of inestimable value to Ukrainians. With this, we are also responding to President Zelensky’s call.”
The delivery will be carried out in collaboration with the United Kingdom.
In addition, the Netherlands “has now also delivered the last component of one complete Patriot system,” the MoD noted. “A radar system and launch installations were previously delivered.”
The command center has now also been added, Brekelmans announced, adding that a new batch of Dutch F-16s had recently been transferred to Ukraine.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attended the UDCG meeting virtually.
Before the meeting, Zelensky asked UDCG member nations for air defense systems and munitions.
The UDCG also announced a new focus area, the procurement of electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Both sides have been using EW to interfere with weapons, sensors and communications.
The new EW Coalition will focus on procuring equipment, training and preparing specialists and developing policies and doctrines in the field of electronic warfare, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
NATO chief Mark Rutte and Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba “vowed to further deepen military ties while stressing the need to jointly tackle growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia,” Euronews reported.
Japan is seeking closer ties with NATO, fearing that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine could embolden China’s assertiveness in the region, the publication noted.
“A stronger NATO will benefit Japan greatly,” Ishiba said at a press conference with Rutte, who was visiting Japan for the first time since becoming secretary general of the defense alliance in October.
In a joint statement released after their talks, Ishiba and Rutte said strengthening defense-industrial cooperation is “a shared priority” and that they plan to focus on developing dual-use and advanced technologies while enhancing their standardization.
Meanwhile, Zelensky told reporters earlier last week that Ukraine is willing to pay up to $50 billion to secure new military equipment from the U.S. That statement was made before he told 60 Minutes that Ukraine wanted to buy 10 Patriot systems.
His statement came as future U.S. aid to Kyiv remains uncertain amid Trump’s policy approach to the war, which has been radically different than his predecessor’s.
Except for a brief halt on all military aid in March, Trump has permitted the continued flow of assistance approved by former U.S. President Joe Biden. However, he has yet to sign off on any new packages.
The funds allocated to help Ukraine under the Biden administration have not yet been exhausted, Zelensky noted, but Kyiv wants an additional package from the Trump administration.
Kyiv is prepared to pay for the weapons, particularly air defense systems, and sees such a deal as the basis for the security guarantees it seeks.
“We see this as a kind of security guarantee,” Zelensky said. “How do we connect our agreement to a security guarantee? Very simply. Give us the package – we will pay for it. We consider this package, which includes air defense and other critical tools we urgently need, as a security guarantee. That’s how it all fits together.”
A Ukrainian F-16 Viper pilot was killed Saturday on a combat mission, the Ukrainian Air Force announced on Facebook.
Pavlo Ivanov, 26, was killed in battle defending his native land from the invaders,” the Ukrainian Air Force stated. “All the circumstances of the tragedy are established by the interdepartmental commission, which has already begun its work.”
Ukrainian F-16 pilots “carry out combat missions in various directions in incredibly difficult conditions, carrying out destructive cover for air strike groups and striking enemy objects,” the Ukrainian Air Force explained. “Ukrainian pilots work to the maximum of human and technical capabilities every time risking their lives during combat missions. Paul was one of them!”
Ivanov is at least the second Ukrainian Viper pilot to be killed in a crash.
In August, Oleksiy Mes, died during Russia’s largest aerial barrage of the war. Before his F-16 went down, Mes, who went by the call sign “Moonfish,” shot down three Russian cruise missiles and a one-way attack drone, Ukrainian Air Force Command West said on Facebook at the time.
That incident is still under investigation.
Mes, along with Major Andrii Pilshchykov, better known by his callsign “Juice,” was a face of the Ukrainian Air Force. Juice was one of three pilots killed in the crash involving two L-39 jet trainer aircraft in August 2023.
An American fighting for Ukraine videoed a Russian Su-34 Fullback fighter bomber attacking Ukrainian forces in a treeline. Second later, a surface-to-air missile is seen being shot at the jet, however, there is no way to tell from the short video the results of that engagement.
A new Russian study gives high marks to the U.S.-donated Bradley Fighting Vehicles.
The study, titled “Results of Research Tests of the BMP ‘Bradley’ M2A2 ODS SA (USA),” claimed that the U.S. vehicle surpasses the Russian BMP-3 in terms of projectile and bullet resistance, mine protection as well as side and frontal protection.
The Bradley is also superior to the BMP-3 in firepower as well due to the accuracy of Bushmaster M242 25 mm automatic cannon, “which is twice that of the 30-mm 2A42 and 2A72 automatic cannons, increasing the effective firing range,” the study notes.
In addition, the Bradley is easier for troops to enter and exit and requires less technical maintenance for key components and assemblies due to easier access.
However, the Bradley is not perfect. It is inferior to the BMP-3 in terms of mobility, range, off-road capability, and the ability to ford water obstacles afloat, the study found.
Of the more than 300 Bradleys given to Ukraine, at least more than half are either destroyed or damaged. And at least 11 have been captured by Russia, according to the Oryx open-source tracking group. Those figures could be higher though because Oryx only tabulates losses for which it has visual confirmation.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry (MoD) released a video showing one of its FPV drones buzzing around a Russian T-80BVM tank before impacting near the turret. Another drone view shows the tank exploding and engulfed in flames.
Meanwhile, the Russian MoD released a video showing its FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian tank and dugout with troops in the Aleksandro-Kalino area of Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine.
With drones a ubiquitous threat from both sides, each has developed so-called metal mesh cope cages to help defend against them. The latest iteration can be seen on a Ukrainian Leopard-2A4. The following video shows a lower-profile cope cage than we have seen on most other vehicles so equipped.
Russians claim they have developed a method to detect the location of Ukrainians using fiber-optic-controlled FPV drones, according to Militarnyi. The idea is to illuminate the wires with a laser and follow the path back to the operators. Fiber optic cables are used because they are impervious to jamming. In addition, the links won’t be degraded when operating low over the ground, among obstacles and in rough terrain because they are not dependent on line-of-sight connectivity requirements found in radio frequency systems.
However, after conducting its own testing, Militarnyi said the procedure offers limited results.
“Given the results, we can confidently say that in theory, it is possible to search for enemy pilots using illuminated fiber-optic cables. However, this requires a number of conditions to be met:
- The specialists must find the necessary cable before the enemy pilots change their position;
- the search is possible only at night and with the necessary equipment and drones;
- the cable must be intact, i.e., without any breaks that would interfere with the laser beam.”
Ukraine has another way of defeating Russian fiber-optic-controlled drones – by striking the source of those cables.
Ukrainian deep-strike drones hit Russian fiber-optic and explosives factories on the night of April 4, according to the Kyiv Independent.
“The strikes targeted factories in Samara and Mordovia oblasts,” according to the publication. “A source with the Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU) confirmed to the tKyiv Independent that they were behind at least the strikes in Samara Oblast.”
“SBU strike drones attacked ‘Promsintez’ in Chapayevsk, in Samara Oblast,” the publication noted. “The factory is one of the leading manufacturers of explosives in the Russian Federation and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
The facility was struck at least 20 times, SBU claimed.
“As a result, the leadership of the factory have stopped their technological processes,” according to the Kyiv Independent.
And finally, not all drones carry out their missions. Such was apparently the case of a Russian Shahed-136 drone recovered by Ukrainian forces. Russia is using Shaheds for attacks and as decoys. The following image shows that drone being hauled away in the back of a pickup and gives a good indication of the size of these drones.
That’s it for now.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com