Satellite imagery is now available showing the aftermath of a Ukrainian attack yesterday on a Russian Navy Improved Kilo class diesel-electric submarine in the Black Sea naval stronghold of Novorossiysk. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed that this was the first attack against a Russian vessel using an uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV). The operation could also mark the historic first successful use of a UUV as an anti-ship weapon, but the actual level of damage inflicted on the submarine remains unclear. Readers can first get up to date on the attack in our initial reporting here.
TWZ obtained satellite images of where the attack occurred in Novorossiysk from Vantor (formerly Maxar Technologies). Additional imagery from Planet Labs has also been circulating online.
The satellite imagery confirms that the UUV — named by the SBU as a Sub Sea Baby, a previously unknown type — detonated off the stern of the submarine, which was at a pier in the port of Novorossiysk. A substantial chunk of the pier itself was destroyed in the attack. This all aligns with video footage shot during the attack from a position on the ground nearby, which the SBU released yesterday.
The post-strike imagery shows that the Improved Kilo class submarine, also known as a Project 636.3 Varshavyanka class type, is in the same position as it was before the attack. Two other submarines that were moored nearby when the attack occured have moved. Other submarines and ships are still in the moorings, including on the outside edge of the damaged pier.
Some of the imagery available now suggests that the submarine that was attacked may now be sitting lower in the water, but that can’t be readily confirmed. Any damage below the waterline would also not be visible in the images. At the same time, there are also no clear signs of any emergency measures having been taken to keep it afloat, or to contain the leakage of oil or other potentially hazardous fluids, as one might expect to see if the damage was severe.
Based on the estimated length of what is visible of the submarine, some observers have noted that the epicenter of the explosion looks to have been less than 65 feet from the stern. The size and configuration of the Sub Sea Baby’s warhead, as well as other details about the UUV and its capabilities, remain scant.
It’s also worth noting that wider views of the port of Novorossiysk following the attack show four Project 636 submarines still present. There is nothing definitive to indicate that the targeted boat might have been replaced by another to conceal the extent of the damage.
For its part, the Russian Ministry of Defense had unsurprisingly denied that any damage was inflicted on the submarine or to any personnel at the port. The ministry has released a video that it claims shows the undamaged boat, but does not offer a view of the stern end. The background is also heavily censored. Even so, it does still reveal what looks like piles of broken concrete debris left on the pier after the explosion, which was clearly visible in the SBU’s video of the attack, as well as in the satellite imagery available now.
The press service of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which operates the submarine, also denies any damage to its vessels. This is also consistent with reports from various Russian naval monitoring channels on social media, but clear corroborating evidence has yet to emerge.
Overall, at this stage, we still cannot say with any authority what degree of damage, if any, the submarine may have actually sustained.
On the other hand, the attack does show Ukraine was at least able to slip a UUV into a heavily defended harbor, in daylight, and detonate its warhead only a few dozen or so feet away from a prized Russian submarine worth, according to the SBU, around $400 million.
At least one Ukrainian UUV was therefore notably able to penetrate past barriers erected at the mouth of the port, intended specifically to protect the vessels within. It’s worth noting, however, that the defensive barriers Russia has already built around ports were primarily put there in response to Ukraine’s uncrewed surface vessel (USV) campaign. This underscores the significance of the use of a UUV in this attack, as another example of the steady adaptation of weapons systems and tactics in response to countermeasures that has become a particular hallmark of the conflict in Ukraine.
With that in mind, Russia is likely to introduce new countermeasures against this particular mode of attack, one which Ukraine has spent some time developing.
The results of yesterday’s attack, while inconclusive for now, will likely spur further such developments in Ukraine, as well. Before SBU targeted the submarine in Novorossiysk, Ukraine had unveiled a UUV dubbed Marichka, designed to launch kamikaze attacks against ships and maritime infrastructure. At least one other Ukrainian UUV, known as Toloka, has previously been disclosed. It’s unclear if either of these has any relationship to the Sub Sea Baby.
Video of the Toloka UUV:
Furthermore, the attack confirms that the Black Sea Fleet is very much still a prime target for Ukraine. This applies especially to the submarines like the Project 636 types and corvettes that are able to launch Kalibr long-range cruise missiles. These weapons have been regularly used in Russia’s nightly barrages launched against targets across Ukraine.
Already, Ukrainian naval actions had forced the Black Sea Fleet to retreat from bases on the occupied Crimean Peninsula to Novorossiysk. Attacks in Crimea were also prosecuted against another Improved Kilo class submarine. In September 2023, the Rostov-on-Don was severely damaged during a combined missile and USV attack on Sevastopol. Ukraine later claimed it was destroyed.
At the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Black Sea Fleet had a total of six Project 636 submarines available.
Other navies around the world will likely have watched yesterday’s attack with interest.
As well as the United States, China and many other nations are developing their own UUVs for missions like this one.
UUVs are able to attack vessels and other targets at long distances and can be launched from submarines and motherships, further extending their range. They can also be used for surveillance and mine laying, among other duties. You can read more about these vessels in various TWZ stories here.
Ultimately, whether or not the Russian submarine was damaged, the attack has demonstrated once again that the war in Ukraine is a crucible for the development of new military technologies, especially uncrewed ones.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com