U.S. President Donald Trump says Israel and Iran have agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” set to begin in about six hours. The deal could end fighting that began with Israel’s preemptive Operation Rising Lion attack on Iranian military sites, leaders and nuclear facilities on June 13. You can catch up with our coverage of the conflict here.
See all the latest updates at the bottom of this post.
“CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE!” Trump exclaimed on his Truth Social site. “It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!”
Trump said that Iran will start the ceasefire “and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World,” Trump continued. “During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”
A senior Iranian official told CNN that no such deal had been reached.
“The official said Iran would continue to fight until it achieves lasting peace and that it would view remarks from Israel and the US as ‘a deception’ intended to justify attacks on Iran’s interests,” the network wrote.
“At this very moment, the enemy is committing aggression against Iran, and Iran is on the verge of intensifying its retaliatory strikes, with no ear to listen to the lies of its enemies,” the official said.
There was no immediate response from Israel.
The Trump announcement came as both sides warned the other’s citizens of impending attacks.
Vice President JD Vance acknowledged that the president gave a six-hour window because this is the time when both sides typically attack each other and they already may have operations underway.
Trump’s announcement came hours after Iran fired about a dozen missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, America’s largest military installation in the Middle East. That was in response to the U.S. attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, launched Saturday. Nobody was hurt on the ground and no property was damaged in Iran’s short-range ballistic missile barrage and all the missiles were either intercepted or were not engaged due to being set to impact uninhabited areas. The anemic attack was clearly an off-ramp for Trump to take.
In a message earlier on Monday, Trump called the Iranian attack “a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. There have been 14 missiles fired — 13 were knocked down, and 1 was “set free,” because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction. I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their “system,” and, hopefully, be no further HATE.”
There has been no immediate public response from Iranian or Israeli officials.
Update: 7:16 PM Eastern –
Axios reporter Barak Ravid said on X that the “ceasefire was agreed upon through Qatari and American mediation between Israel and Iran,” citing “sources familiar with the matter.”
“After the attack on the American base, Iran conveyed a message to the White House via Qatar that it would not carry out further attacks and that its response was over,” Ravid added. “The White House responded to Iran with its own message, emphasizing that it would not respond militarily to the Iranian attack and that the United States was ready to resume negotiations on a nuclear agreement. Talks then continued between the US and Israel and between Qatar and Iran to agree on the terms of the ceasefire and the time at which it would begin.”
Fox News offered a similar take on how the negotiations unfolded.
There is an indication that Iranian officials have agreed to the deal, with Reuters reporter Parisa Hafezi noting on X that a senior Iranian official confirmed that Tehran agreed to the Qatar-mediated, U.S.-proposed ceasefire with Israel.
Still, at least one Iranian politician remained wary.
“The calls for a halt to the war, a ceasefire, a lack of response to the blow, and anything else like that, from Trump or the regime, are merely deception aimed at surprising and a false gesture aimed at escalating the conflict,” Mehdi Mohammadi, advisor to the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, said, according to the semi-official Iranian Mehr news agency. “If we are not smart, we will be hit hard.”
Update: 7:54 PM Eastern –
Even with a tentative ceasefire agreement, the Middle East is still roiled. New video emerged on social media claiming to show an attack on a U.S. base in Iraq. We cannot confirm the details, nor is it clear who would carry it out. The Iranian-backed militias have long targeted U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, albeit with a degree of autonomy. Iran’s command and control has been diminished by Israeli attacks, raising further questions about who might be behind this.
Update: 8:10 PM Eastern –
Some analysis and perspective on a potential ceasefire from our editor-in-chief:
“Some things to consider as we await the verdict on Trump’s ceasefire deal: The IAF has been executing long-range sorties continuously for close to two weeks. This comes on the tail of constant war-time operations for the last 20+ months. Their fighters have racked up huge amounts of hours. They have just seven tankers, all of them nearly antiques. How long they can keep up the sortie rates deep into Iran isn’t clear. Their munitions stockpile may be a concern, but the U.S. can supply the basics there. Air defense units are also taxed.
At a certain point, the operational plan will have to shift significantly to deal with these issues. Still, Israel is sitting in a very good place from a purely military perspective, and they could choose to continue, buying back risk of Iran reconstituting its military capabilities if future operations are needed.
Above all else, Iran’s long-range ballistic missile arsenal is clearly in tatters and with decreasing raid numbers to prove it. Without these weapons, Israel can continue the conflict with minimal homeland disruption/cost. Even if Israel is running low on interceptors, Iran is clearly in a worse spot with its long-range offensive capabilities. As I have stated repeatedly, this was something of a race as to who will run out first.
Now to Iran. Iran’s military capabilities have been deeply degraded. Their air defenses are not non-existent, but their air defense network is shattered. Only straggling threats remain in most places. Their tactical airpower is destroyed. As we just discussed, their long-range ballistic missile arsenal has also been deeply degraded and heavily consumed. Above all else, their command and control apparatus is probably the most badly battered. The fog of war is likely soup-thick for them and even circulating a ceasefire order, let alone organizing a coordinated military operation, may take time. What does remain is a huge short-range offensive arsenal, but can it even be employed at scale without robust command and control? Unlikely.
Their nuclear program has been badly damaged in virtually every manner. It’s unclear what it will take to reconstitute it and what it would even look like in a new form, that is if Israel doesn’t continue to strike at every piece of intel it gets related to it. Iran’s airspace will remain accessible to Israel for months or even years to come, allowing the IAF to ‘maintenance’ the nuclear threat. The biggest issue is the enriched uranium they already have, which has been hidden away somewhere.
Taken as a whole, Iran has more reason to push for this ceasefire, but Israel has reasons too. We’ll see how it all pans out. But this is the state of play as I see it at this time.”
Update: 9:15 PM Eastern –
Iran’s foreign minister said there is no agreement, BUT if Israel stops its strikes by 4AM, Iran will end hostilities. Now, in another tweet, he said Israel struck right up until the deadline, but has stopped. It is not uncommon for belligerents to throw everything they have at an enemy in order to get in their last blows right up until the ceasefire window begins. Israel likely scrambled whatever it could to do as much damage to the regime up until that moment.
The attacks in Iraq appear multi-fold, striking numerous bases where U.S. personnel are present via drone. It isn’t clear who launched them, but local Iran-aligned militias are the most likely culprit. These strikes appear concentrated on air defense radar systems, which is concerning as they would soften the installations’ defensive capabilities. These have continued after the 4 a.m. ceasefire.
Once again, these attacks cannot be directly linked to Tehran at this time, and the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding.
Update: 10:55 PM Eastern –
Iran has launched at least two new salvos of ballistic missiles at Israel, according to the IDF. There were no reports of any impacts or casualties from the first wave.
However, at least one of the missiles from the second wave reached the ground.
Despite the earlier statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Araghchi indicating Iran had halted operations against Israel at 4 a.m. local time, more than two hours ago, there seems to be some confusion over whether or not the ceasefire announced earlier is yet in effect. The six-hour window that U.S. President Trump had mentioned earlier has yet to end.
As we noted in an earlier update, there are also questions about the current state of Iran’s command and control apparatus and what hurdles there might be for disseminating orders to implement a ceasefire.
Update: 11:10 PM Eastern –
Iranian state media has just begun to start broadcasting news of the ceasefire agreement with Israel.
Additional imagery of the aftermath of the missile that hit Israel in the last salvo, which impacted in Beersheba in the southern end of the country, has continued to emerge. At least six casualties, including an individual in critical condition, have been reported.
Update: 12:10 PM Eastern –
The six-hour window before the ceasefire was due to take effect that President Donald Trump previously outlined has now ended.
Iran has now launched a total of five salvos of missiles at Israel. So far, there are no reported impacts from any of the three additional waves.
There are reports that three people have now died as a result of the earlier Iranian missile strike in Beersheba.
Update: 12:15 PM Eastern –
Iran’s state news reports the ceasefire is now in effect. No more missiles will be launched. In total, it appears 12 missiles were fired at Israel in five or six waves.
Trump has chimed in as well, asking to not violate the ceasefire.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com