The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) findings on Thursday that Iran has tried to hide its nuclear ambitions, and Tehran’s vow to build new uranium enrichment facilities as a result, have given Israel additional pretext for an attack against its longtime nemesis. Meanwhile, a senior Israel Defense Forces (IDF) source told us that there “are credible indications that Israeli operational preparations for a strike on Iran have been completed.” At the same time, what could be last-ditch negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are planned for this weekend, and it’s clear that maximum pressure is being put on Iran in hopes of a breakthrough. You can catch up with our previous coverage of this situation here.
Author’s update: Israel has hit Iran with airstrikes, the nature of which remain unclear. You can read our rolling coverage on this event here.
Iran immediately pushed back on the decision by the IAEA board of governors’ to demand it provide answers “without delay” in a long-running investigation into uranium traces found at several locations that Tehran has failed to declare as nuclear sites.
The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) “Mohammad Eslami has issued orders to establish a new enrichment center in a secure location,” the official Iranian Fars news outlet reported on Thursday. “Advanced IR-6 centrifuges will replace the older first-generation centrifuges at the Shahid Dr. Alimohammadi (Fordow) site…Further measures are being planned and will be announced in due course, according to the atomic agency and the foreign ministry.”
Iran’s announcement about the enrichment sites comes as the Trump administration is working to freeze Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and indications are increasing that Israel will attempt to strike at the heart of the country’s nuclear program. U.S. President Donald Trump said he has vowed that Iran will not, under any circumstances, obtain nuclear weapons. However, he is also trying to keep Israel from an attack that will likely dive the Middle East into unprecedented turmoil and could have wide-ranging global effects on energy prices.
The United States has roughly four optional tiers of involvement if Israel were to execute strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and possibly additional target sets, such as on its military capabilities and long-range weapons development and production capacity. The first would be to do nothing and let Israel go it totally alone. The second is to provide defensive capabilities only, which includes shooting down incoming missiles and drones headed for Israel, as well as supplying it with related intelligence. The third would be to provide limited support directly to Israel’s military campaign. This would likely include aerial refueling — a critical capability of which Israel has a very limited capacity to sustain such an operation — as well as reconnaissance and other targeted intelligence products. Search and rescue outside of Iran could also be a capability provided. Finally, the fourth option would be to participate in the kinetic operation itself, leveraging many capabilities Israel does not possess that could prove highly valuable in significantly degrading Iran’s nuclear program.
“I have provided the Secretary of Defense [Pete Hegseth] and the president a wide range of options,” U.S. Central Command Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla testified before Congress on Wednesday.
The U.S. would likely provide “aerial refueling or intelligence sharing” as well as air and missile defenses seen during previous Iranian attacks on Israel in April 2024 and October 2024, in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran, officials told CBS News.
“U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran,” CBS News explained, citing multiple sources. The Trump administration is weighing options to assist Israel without leading the attack, the network posited.
A source familiar with the planning told the network the options are unlikely to include direct participation by B-2A Spirit stealth bombers that can carry the 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs that would be the best U.S. option for trying to penetrate Iran’s deep underground fortified uranium enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz.
However, as we have previously noted, it is questionable that even the use of the MOP could achieve the desired effects of destroying these facilities. On the other hand, it would have a much better chance of damaging or at least destroying direct access to these installations for a period of time. Israel currently has nuclear weapons, but it possesses no conventional munitions that can match that capability. Of note, we have discussed in the past the possibility that Israel could use its secretive, conventionally armed Jericho ballistic missile in any fight with Iran.
It is also possible that Israel could launch a special operations ground raid against Iran’s most hardened nuclear facilities. Earlier this year, we shared vivid details about a mission Israel conducted against an underground Iranian missile facility in Syria that was something of a blueprint for such an operation. As we have stated for years, beyond using nuclear weapons or irradiating these facilities, Israel has limited options when it comes to nullifying them. This is where commando operations could come in, although they would be extremely risky.
Though the Pentagon is considering limiting its response, as we reported yesterday, it is preparing for an overwhelming response to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Testifying before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday, Hegseth declined to offer any specifics in a public forum on what actions the U.S. may take in the region.
Israeli Prime Minister “Bibi Netanyahu is going to put his country first, and we’re going to put our country first, and we’re positioned properly in the region to any potential contingency,” Hegseth said when pressed on whether the U.S. will be dragged into a conflict should Israel attack Iran.
Among those preparations are the diversion of counter-drone capabilities from Ukraine to the Middle East, which you can read more about in our previous coverage here.
In past stories, we noted that B-2s were deployed to the remote island of Diego Garcia both to send a message to Iran as well as to attack Houthi targets in Yemen during the recently completed campaign against the rebel group, a U.S. official told The War Zone at the time. That campaign began March 15 with a series of aviation and missile strikes against the Iranian-backed group. You can read more about the deployment of B-2s to the remote Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia here.
While the Spirits are gone, B-52H bombers, as well as F-15E Strike Eagles, remain on that island even though the U.S. and Yemen have agreed to a ceasefire, another indication that the U.S. is getting ready for a potential conflict in Iran. There are many other U.S. capabilities, including fighter squadrons and air defense units, that have been deployed to the region to beef-up America’s presence and to provide additional force protection and kinetic options, if needed.
An Israeli attack is not a certainty, the senior IDF source told us, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational planning. He was quick to point out that his assessment is not based on classified information, but rather consultation with Israeli military experts and journalists.
He estimated that as of today, there is “around 60% likelihood of some form of strike—limited or targeted—within the next few weeks, and 40% chance that the current posture remains part of a high-stakes deterrence game.”
“Of course, this could shift rapidly based on new intelligence, diplomatic developments, or domestic political changes in either Israel or the U.S.,” he added. “Furthermore, a critical factor increasing the volatility of the current situation is the mutual risk of miscalculation.”
“From an analytical standpoint, the probability of an Israeli strike on Iran in the near term appears to be higher than usual, though still not a certainty,” the source further explained.
“On the Iranian side, there is a real danger they may underestimate Israel’s willingness—or immediate need—to act,” the source posited. “Tehran may assess recent Israeli threats as political posturing tied to Netanyahu’s domestic agenda, rather than genuine operational intent. If Iranian leadership assumes Israel is bluffing, they may continue advancing nuclear capabilities or escalating proxy activity without fully anticipating the consequences. This miscalculation could inadvertently trigger a severe Israeli response.”
For Israel, “the calculus may lean toward preventive action, driven not only by intelligence on Iran’s capabilities but also by uncertainty about Iran’s intentions,” he continued. “If Israeli intelligence identifies what it interprets as preparations for an Iranian strike—either directly or via proxies—Jerusalem might opt for a preemptive strike to disrupt or delay the threat, especially in a ‘fog of war’ atmosphere where waiting could mean absorbing the first blow.”
Amid the threats, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said Iran is prepared to defend itself and issued a warning to the U.S. and Israel.
“The enemy sometimes threatens us with military action,” Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami said during a ceremony in Tehran on Thursday, according to the official IRNA news outlet. “We have always warned the enemy against making any miscalculation.”
He added that “the Iranian Armed Forces have been ‘ready for war at any level’ for years,” IRNA reported.
“Iranian officials have warned that any act of aggression against the country will trigger a swift and forceful retaliation, with American interests and military bases in the region identified as potential targets,” IRNA added.
On Wednesday, Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh claimed “that Tehran has successfully tested a missile with a warhead weighing two tons,” according to Fars.
“Iranian officials have repeatedly stressed that the country will not hesitate to enhance its military capacities, including its missile and drone power, which are entirely meant for defense, and that Iran’s defense capacities will never be subject to negotiation,” the publication noted.
Meanwhile, Axios is reporting that “White House envoy Steve Witkoff privately warned top Senate Republicans last week that Iran could unleash a mass casualty response if Israel bombs their nuclear facilities, according to a U.S. official and a source with direct knowledge.”
The U.S. “is concerned Israel’s air defenses would not be able to handle an Iranian response involving hundreds of missiles, the sources said,” Axios explained. “Such an attack, Witkoff told the group, could cause massive casualties and damage.”
Trump on Thursday hinted that open conflict may be near.
“Well, I don’t want to say imminent, but it looks like it’s something that could very well happen,” he said in response to a reporter’s question, according to the White House press pool. “Look, it’s very simple, not complicated. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful. … We’ll help them be successful. We’ll trade with them, we’ll do whatever is necessary.”
These developments have prompted warnings to U.S. personnel in the region.
“Due to the increased regional tensions, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from travel outside the greater Tel Aviv (including Herzliya, Netanya, and Even Yehuda), Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva areas until further notice,” the embassy stated on its website. “Transit between these three areas, including to and from Ben Gurion Airport, is authorized. Transiting Route 1 to and from Allenby Bridge is also permitted.”
That move follows warnings the State Department and U.S. Central Command issued on Wednesday to U.S. personnel within striking distance of Iran due to the increasing tensions.
“Do not travel to Iraq due to terrorism, kidnapping, armed conflict, civil unrest, and the U.S. government’s limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Iraq,” the State Department said in a statement. “Do not travel to Iraq for any reason.”
“The safety and security of our service members and their families remains our highest priority and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is monitoring the developing tension in the Middle East,” a U.S. defense official told The War Zone Wednesday afternoon. “Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations across the CENTCOM AOR. CENTCOM is working in close coordination with our Department of State counterparts, as well as our Allies and partners in the region to maintain a constant state of readiness to support any number of missions around the world at any time.”
Speaking to reporters Wednesday night at the Kennedy Center in Washington, Trump explained the warnings to U.S. personnel and civilians in the region.
“They are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place,” the president said. “We’ll see what happens. They can’t have a nuclear weapon, very simple.”
All this comes ahead of what could be a last-ditch effort to avoid open conflict.
On Sunday, talks will take place in Oman between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, The Jerusalem Post reported on Thursday.
“This will be the sixth round of discussions on the nuclear deal. Western diplomats described this round as ‘decisive,’ amid the U.S. demand for a complete halt to uranium enrichment and Iran’s assertion that enrichment is its ‘natural right,’” the publication reported.
Prior to the talks, Witkoff will meet with Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, and Mossad chief, David Barnea.
Witkoff declared on Wednesday night that Iran must never be allowed to enrich uranium or develop any nuclear threat.
“A nuclear Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, as does an Iran armed with a large arsenal of missiles,” he said in a speech at a conference hosted by the United Hatzalah organization.
“This is as much an existential threat as the nuclear threat itself. It is an existential threat to the United States, the free world, and all Gulf states. We must stand firm and united against this danger and ensure that Iran never acquires the means to fulfill its deadly ambitions, no matter the cost.”
Author’s note: Tyler Rogoway contributed to the technical aspects of this report.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com