The U.S. is planning to halve its troop presence in Syria, a U.S. official told The War Zone on Wednesday. The move comes even as the Pentagon is surging resources to the Middle East and could have wide regional ramifications.
“There is a consolidation occurring over the coming weeks and months involving about 1,000 troops,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. “That will leave about 1,000 troops.”
“The Department of Defense routinely reallocates forces based on operational needs and contingencies,” a defense official said in a statement. “These movements demonstrate the flexible nature of U.S. global defense posture and U.S. capability to deploy worldwide on short notice to meet evolving security threats. Due to operational security reasons, we have nothing additional to provide at this time.”
The U.S. forces in Syria are mostly based in the northeastern part of that country with the stated mission of continuing the fight against ISIS. There is also a base in southern Syria, called Al-Tanf, located along the borders of Jordan and Iraq. U.S. forces across Syria have been subjected to attacks by Iranian-backed militias as well as ISIS, prompting frequent kinetic responses.
The official we spoke with did not know where the withdrawing troops would go or from which bases they would be leaving.
Reuters was the first to report on the drawdown.
Reducing the number of troops in Syria has been a goal of U.S. President Donald Trump. He called for a sudden, complete withdrawal during his first term in 2019, however, that was never fully implemented before he left office. The way forward for a drawdown this time was created in large measure by the overthrow last December of dictator Bashar Al-Assad by the former al-Qaeda rebel group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
The new Syrian government, led by HTS head President Ahmed al-Sharaa, has been working closely with officials from U.S. Central Command on several matters, noted Syria expert Charles Lister, director of the Middle East Institute’s Syria Program and founder of SyriaWeekly.com.
The U.S. military and intelligence communities have “established a fruitful relationship” with the new Syrian government, including sharing intelligence that helped take out “multiple senior ISIS leaders and foiling 9 major urban plots,” Lister explained on X. He added that a U.S. partner is now within Syria’s Defense Ministry.
In addition, the U.S. has been brokering a deal with the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). That group has been a major ally against ISIS, but has also been embroiled in fighting against Turkish-led forces in the north, adding to regional instability. A recent peace deal pushed by CENTCOM is aimed at stopping that fighting and reducing tensions, Lister posited.
Despite the increasing cooperation between the U.S and the new Syrian government, drawing down American forces there could create a ripple effect across the region, several experts told us.
The fall of the Assad regime has already led to Russia pulling most of its troops and resources, especially air defense systems, out of Syria. That opened up freedom of operations in the sky for the U.S., Israel and Turkey. However, the U.S. drawdown marks “a significant inflection point in the regional balance of power,” a senior Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) officer told The War Zone Wednesday. “The U.S. presence in northeastern Syria has functioned not only as a counter terrorism outpost against residual Islamic State activity, but also as a geostrategic buffer constraining Iranian entrenchment west of the Euphrates. A reduction in this presence will likely carry profound strategic consequences for Israel.”
Furthermore, the reduction in U.S. troop presence in Syria “would create operational space for Iranian proxies, particularly the IRGC and Hezbollah, to solidify logistical corridors through Syria — part of Tehran’s broader objective to establish a contiguous axis of influence from Iran to the Mediterranean,” added the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss these issues. “This ‘land bridge’ enhances Iran’s capacity to transfer advanced weaponry, including precision-guided munitions, to Hezbollah, thereby altering the qualitative edge Israel seeks to maintain.”
As a result, “the diminution of U.S. deterrence and ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) capabilities in Syria would effectively shift the onus of containing Iranian expansionism to Israel,” the IDF officer explained. That, in turn, could increase the military operations of Israel, which already has a growing footprint in southwestern Syria.
“This could require an intensification of Israeli kinetic operations across Syrian territory, including strategic interdicts on weapons transfers, Quds Force deployments, and the construction of forward-operating infrastructure near the Golan Heights — raising the risk of escalation with both Iran and its proxies,” the IDF officer posited.
Another factor to consider is whether fewer U.S. troops in Syria will affect the growing presence of Israeli and Turkish forces there and the tensions between the two. As we have previously reported, Israel has carried out a series of airstrikes on Syrian air bases to prevent them from being used by Turkish aircraft. Both nations are seeking to expand their influence in Syria, where the new government was heavily backed by Ankara.
“For Turkey, the equation is more nuanced,” Middle East analyst Mohammed “Basha” Albasha told us. “While the U.S. remains a key ally both within and beyond NATO, President [Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan maintains a strong personal rapport with President Trump, making the presence — or withdrawal — of U.S. forces less politically sensitive. Turkey already holds significant influence in Syria as the primary backer of the Al Shaara government, and in that context, it maintains the upper hand regardless of U.S. troop levels.”
Meanwhile, Iran, the potential target of the onging U.S. buildup of resources in and around the region, will see this reduction as a victory, Albasha suggested.
“Any time the U.S. reduces its footprint in the Middle East, Iran sees it as a win — consistent with its long-standing goal of pushing the U.S. out of the region,” he explained. “For Israel, however, the opposite is true: a diminished U.S. presence is viewed as a strategic setback and an added operational burden on the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).”
Though the U.S. is planning to drastically reduce its presence in Syria, it is surging resources to the Middle East, sending B-2 bombers, fighters, a second aircraft carrier and additional air defense systems to the region. The extra forces are needed due to a month-long campaign against the Houthi rebels of Yemen and as a show of force against Iran, which is facing a deadline from Trump to make a deal on its nuclear program or face potentially large-scale kinetic consequences.
Unlike during his first term, Trump has given the order to reduce the number of U.S. troops in Syria with plenty of time for full implementation. The ripple effects of that move will come into sharper focus once American boots leave Syrian soil.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com