In a major policy shift with two months left in office, the Biden administration will allow Ukraine to use U.S.-produced and donated Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles deep inside Russia. The missiles, which can hit targets of up to about 190 miles away, are likely to first be used in Russia’s Kursk region, according to The New York Times, citing U.S. officials. The publication was the first to report the administration’s change of heart.
The policy change was spurred by the presence of North Korean troops fighting in Kursk, the officials said. Ukrainian Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate, told us on Sunday that there are 12,000 North Korean troops now in Kursk. Pyongyang could eventually send 100,000 troops to Russia, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.
Russia has sent about 50,000 troops, including North Koreans, into Kursk to take back territory lost during Ukraine’s three-month-old invasion. It marks the second attempt by Russia to push Ukraine out of Kursk. So far, it appears the Russians have been suffering large losses of personnel and equipment without having cut too deeply into Ukraine’s Kursk salient.
Likely targets for Ukraine include logistics nodes, supply lines, ammunition storage and equipment storage sites and large gatherings of troops, adding additional stresses on Russia’s attempts to dislodge Ukraine before Donald Trump takes office in January. You can see some potential targets in the following map.
“First and foremost it is strategic deterrence conventional weapon in current circumstances,” a former high-ranking Ukrainian officer told us on Sunday. “Secondly, we should be allowed to hit high-priority targets far away from the Ukrainian border. As for now, I would focus not only on military targets but also on military industry objects, gas stations, electrical grids etc. Our strategy will depend on how many and what range ATACMS we get.”
Throughout the all-out war, the Biden administration has been cautious about allowing the use of U.S.-supplied weapons in Russia, fearing a backlash by Vladimir Putin, who controls a nuclear-armed military. However, there have been changes to that policy in the past.
Back in May, Biden allowed Ukraine to use M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, with a range of about 50 miles, against targets inside Russia bordering Kharkiv Oblast. It was in response to a Russian counteroffensive in that area. However, the use of ATACMS was prohibited. Ukraine has been using both weapons to a devastating effect inside its own borders.
Ukraine has also been using U.S.-donated Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) and Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) precision-guided bombs, as well as French-donated AASM-250 Hammer rocket-assisted bombs in Ukraine and Kursk, SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles, and similar British Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles on Russian targets in Ukraine. This move could also lead to France and the U.K. easing restrictions on the use of SCALPs and Storm Shadows.
All this comes ahead of Trump’s new presidency, which could see aid to Ukraine greatly diminished or cut off. While saying he can quickly end the war, Trump has yet to offer any specifics and it is unclear exactly just how he will deal with the war, especially if a peace deal cannot be reached. You can read more about this in our deep dive here.
We will likely find out about the first use of ATACMS in Kursk when videos emerge on social media of missile fragments, or Ukraine makes a public announcement. While they will certainly help, it is believed that Ukraine has only a relatively small supply of these missiles. However, even that puts Russian and North Korean troops in greater danger.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com