In response to a Houthi pledge to cease attacks on non-Israeli-linked Red Sea shipping in the wake of the Gaza War ceasefire, a global leader in the maritime security industry issued a new threat assessment on Monday. Ambrey suggested the region around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could be entering a period of reduced danger for vessels transiting through the area if — and it’s a big if — the Houthis actually stick to their word.
The Houthi-linked Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC), which serves as a conduit between Houthi forces and commercial shipping operators, sent an email to the shipping industry on Sunday saying it would no longer attack U.S.- and U.K.-linked ships in the wake of the ceasefire that went into effect Jan. 19 with the exchange of three Israeli hostages held by Hamas and dozens of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. HOCC added that Houthis would also stop attacking Israeli-linked vessels “upon the full implementation of all phases of the agreement.”
That is a reference to Phase 2 of the ceasefire, which is scheduled to take effect in about five weeks. The letter does not mention any other nations.

Given that the rebel group has attacked vessels with dubious ties to Israel, it remains unclear how they will make that distinction moving forward. Regardless, the Houthis say they will resume kinetic actions against ships connected to the U.S. or U.K. if the militant group’s assets and personnel are subjected to further airstrikes.
“We affirm that, in the event of any aggression against the Republic of Yemen by the United States of America, the United Kingdom, or the usurping Israeli entity, the sanctions will be reinstated against the aggressor state (s),” the HOCC notice continued. “You will be promptly informed of such measures should they be implemented.”
You can see one of those ship attacks in the following video.

Ambrey on Monday suggested that the HOCC proclamation would have a positive impact on non-Israel-linked shipping if the Houthis lived up to their pledge.
“The coming weeks will provide the proof of whether the Houthi follow suit with their stated intent,” Ambrey assessed. “During this period, the threat to all shipping is reduced apart from Israeli-owned-and-flagged vessels. However, this is subject to flashpoint escalation if the Houthi consider Israel in breach of the ceasefire agreement.”
Ambrey also assessed that “shipping with links to Israel and Israeli trade to be at greater risk than U.S.- and U.K.-owned shipping as the ceasefire remains fragile and secondary negotiations continue. Houthi military action in response to a perceived breach of the ceasefire agreement by Israel remains possible and would highly likely impact Israeli-affiliated shipping first.”

Ambrey urged caution about Houthi promises.
“The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) issued the warning: Maritime industry should be skeptical of recent Houthi claims,” the company noted, referring to a U.K.-led information-sharing effort on Houthi attacks.
Houthi statements, especially claims of attacks on U.S. or U.K. warships, are frequently made without merit. The most recent example of that came on Sunday when the Houthis claimed to have targeted the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group for the eighth time. Over the past year, the Houthis have claimed successful attacks on U.S. Navy ships, which never actually occurred.
“We have nothing operational to provide,” a U.S. official told The War Zone in response to our question about the veracity of the Houthis’ latest attack claim.
The shipping attacks began in November 2023 in solidarity with Palestinians over the latest war between Israel and Gaza. They have forced ships to avoid the Suez Canal for a far longer route around Africa, boosting cargo costs by nearly $200 billion. The Houthis’ attacks sank two vessels, damaged many others, caused the death of four mariners, and led to many being held hostage after a ship was seized. The Houthi Red Sea campaign also led to nearly constant military engagements with the U.S. and its allies, including air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and repelling the militant group’s frequent missile, aerial drone, and drone boat attacks on commercial and military vessels.

The Hapag-Lloyd shipping company told The War Zone it is too early to say if they will resume shipping through the Suez Canal.
“We will continue to closely monitor and analyze the latest developments and their impact on the security situation in the Red Sea,” Tim Seifert, a spokesman for the Hapag-Lloyd shipping company told The War Zone on Monday. “Otherwise, the following applies unchanged: we will return to the Red Sea when it is safe to do so.”
In addition to effects on commercial shipping, the U.S. military stands to benefit dramatically from any real reduction in Houthi belligerence in the Red Sea region. Navy vessels – which have had to maintain a constant presence in this area – have expended hundreds of expensive munitions taking down Houthi threats. That’s forced those ships to leave the area to replenish. The constant Red Sea region patrols have been at the cost of presence elsewhere in the world and put a heavy strain on ships and crews. In addition to battles at sea, U.S. Navy aviation assets, as well as cruise missiles, and U.S. Air Force and Royal Air Force aircraft have carried out repeated strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. Israel has also pounded the rebel group from the air.
A full breakdown of what each of the Navy’s missiles cost is seen in the exclusive TWZ video below:

It is unclear how seriously the U.S. and its allies take this new Houthi pledge. We have reached out to U.S. Central Command, the U.K. Defense Ministry, and the European Union’s Operation Aspides maritime security effort for more details. It’s also a question of just how many munitions the Houthis still have after nearly 16 months of barrages and many strikes against their weapons storage areas in Yemen. Iran’s ability to resupply them with critical components for these weapons is also in question after a brutal year for their proxy investments abroad. You can read all about the Houthis’ anti-ship arsenal here.
Adding to the uncertainty of any future U.S. response to the Iranian-backed Houthis, Donald Trump assumed the presidency today. He has previously vowed to revive his “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran and its proxies, and when asked about possible military strikes, answered with an ominous “anything can happen.”

As we noted in the past, the conflict that began on Oct. 7, 2023 radically reshaped the region’s geopolitics. It saw Israel decimate Hezbollah in Lebanon and by going after proxy groups like these, this has dramatically weakened Iran’s influence over the region, a dynamic reinforced by the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.
So, overall, when it comes to the Houthis and the incredibly complex security situation in the region, despite any pledges to the contrary, shipping magnets and military forces alike will very much have to take a ‘wait and see’ approach to their sudden move towards deescalation.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com