--- title: "Russia Massing For Possible Cross-River Offensive In South Ukraine" date: "2024-12-04" modified: "2024-12-04" authors: - name: "Howard Altman" job_title: "Senior Staff Writer" link: "https://www.twz.com/authors/howard-altman" url: "https://www.twz.com/news-features/russia-massing-for-possible-cross-river-offensive-in-south-ukraine" categories: - "Around The Globe" - "Europe" - "News & Features" - "Russia" - "Ukraine" --- # Russia Massing For Possible Cross-River Offensive In South Ukraine ![Russia is massing for a possible attack across the Dnipro River to draw in Ukrainian troops.]() *\Google Earth image\* As Ukraine [continues to lose territory in the eastern region]() of its country and [struggles to hold on to]() the salient it’s carved out in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, it is facing increasing pressure in the south. “Russian troops are constantly conducting assaults in[ the Kherson]() direction,” Vladislav Voloshin, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Southern Command,[ told the *Suspline* media outlet on Wednesday](). “Over the past day, there were seven of them. They tried to gain a foothold in the \[Dnipro River\] island zone.” https://twitter.com/iuliiamendel/status/1864328748981502068?s=12 Russia is increasing its efforts on the Dnipro to draw Ukrainian troops from other regions, the spokesman suggested. "They have the goal of capturing a certain bridgehead, holding it, and bringing them there as much of our strength and means as possible,” Voloshin said. “Russia wants to launch another offensive here,” Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson regional military administration, [told the *Financial Times*](). Russian forces, he added, had assembled “300 boats to cross the river” for that effort. The control map of the region has remained largely unchanged since Ukrainian forces [recaptured Kherson City]() in November 2022. Ukraine has [mounted furtive attempts]() at establishing a bridgehead in Kyrynky on the Russian side of the river. It has also tried to advance east from the mouth of the Dnipro by attacking through the Kinburn Spit. However, neither of these attempts succeeded and this part of the battlefield has seen no real territorial gains by either side. ![Ukraine's attacks across the Dnipro River have been bloody and futile, troops told The New York Times]() *Ukraine's attacks across the Dnipro River have been bloody and futile. (Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky)* Ahead of any potential river crossing, Russia has been softening the Ukrainian side with a massive drone barrage, according to the *Financial Times*. “Since mid-July, Kherson and its neighboring villages along the western side of the Dnipro River have suffered more than 9,500 attacks with small drones, killing at least 37 people and injuring hundreds more,” according to Prokudin, along with regional prosecutors and police. "Russia had deployed some of its ‘best drone units’ across the Dnipro River,” Prokudin told the *Financial Times*. From the opposite bank of the river bisecting Kherson Oblast, “Russians were launching advanced drone models, refining combat techniques and training new operators for their intensifying invasion.” ![]() *Ukrainian officials say Russia may be preparing an attack across the Dnipro River. (Google Earth image)* This Russian push is happening ahead of the return of Donald Trump to the White House, Ukrainian officials suggest, according to *Financial Times*. Trump has repeatedly said he can end the war within his first 24 hours of taking office, however, [he has presented no definitive plans](). You can read more about this later in our story. “Ukrainian officials suspect the assault is part of Russia’s plan to ratchet up pressure on Kyiv before Donald Trump returns to the White House, accelerating battlefield gains and preparing for a potential push across the Dnipro River,” the publication explained. The push to gain as much territory as possible ahead of a potential freeze of the front lines as part of a peace deal has been expected. How successful that would be is a big question given the challenges of fording a major river, especially with major bridges down. Russian forces experienced the difficulty of such maneuvers as they [unsuccessfully tried to cross the Seym River]() in Kursk and were pushed back yesterday from [an attempted advance across the Oskil River]() in Kharkiv Oblast. Vessels crossing the Dnipro would be quickly targeted by drones, anti-tank guided missiles and direct-fire weapons. Artillery could also be a problem for those trying to cross. Any central massing of Russian troops can be hit with artillery, GMLRS rockets, and stand-off aviation strike munitions liked winged[ JDAM-ER]() GPS-guided glide bombs, [GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs]() (SDB) and [AASM-250 Hammer]() rocket-assisted bombs. So far, the Russian attempts to cross the Dnipro have failed, the Southern Command spokesman claimed. “All these assaults end in nothing,” said Voloshin. “They are all fruitless. The enemy only bears losses.” Russia, however, can afford more losses than Ukraine. Forcing Kyiv to redeploy troops or weapons to the once stable Kherson region would only add to its battlefield woes as its defenses in the east continue to degrade. ## The Latest Elsewhere on the battlefield, Russian forces continued gaining ground in eastern Ukraine, especially in the Donetsk region. Another area of growing concern for Ukraine is a potential new Russian push in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border area. Here are some key takeaways from the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War ([ISW]()). - Kursk Oblast: Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Dec. 3. “Geolocated footage published on December 2 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in southern Darino (southeast of Korenevo),” ISW stated. - Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the international border north of Kharkiv City towards Kozacha Lopan, north of Kharkiv City near Hlyboke, and northeast of Kharkiv City near Starytsya and Vovchansk on Dec. 2 and 3 but did not make any confirmed advances. - Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Siversk near Bilohorivka and in the Chasiv Yar direction on Dec. 3 but did not make any confirmed advances. However, they recently advanced south of Toretsk and south of Pokrovsk. - Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border area: Russian forces recently advanced north of Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk. Geolocated footage published on Dec. 3 “indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northern Novyi Komar (north of Velyka Novosilka),” ISW stated. “Russian advances into Novyi Komar support multiple courses of action (COAs) that ISW recently forecasted the Russian military command might pursue, including enveloping or bypassing Velyka Novosilka to interdict the T0518 Velyka Novosilka-Bahatyr highway and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and advancing to Andriivka (west of Kurakhove) from the south.” - Zaporihzhzhia: Russian forces continued offensive operations near Robotyne, Novoandriivka (northwest of Robotyne), and Novodanylivka (north of Robotyne), on Dec. 2 and 3 but did not make any advances. https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1864130344472953264 There are mounting claims that Ukraine is helping [Syrian rebels fight against Russia](), a mutual enemy. On Tuesday, Vassily Nebenzia, Russia's U.N. ambassador, accused Ukrainian intelligence of supporting anti-regime forces opposing Syria's Bashar Assad. He alleged that [some fighters were openly displaying their connections](). Anti-regime forces fighting with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ([HTS]()) "have not only not concealed the fact that they are supported by Ukraine, but they are also openly flaunting this," Nebenzia told the Security Council. There was an "identifiable trail" showing Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) "providing weapons to fighters" in northwest Syria. "Ukrainian military instructors from the GUR are present ... training HTS fighters for combat operations," including against Russian troops in Syria, Nebenzia alleged. Abu Bakr, leader of a Syrian opposition drone team, reached out to Ukrainian military intelligence for guidance, the Clash report claims. “Ukrainians supplied 3D printing files for key components like bomb carriers, tails, and warheads. This allowed the opposition to produce, assemble, and adapt their drones independently.” He and another Syrian drone operator stated that GUR is providing only training and guidance in conducting drone operations. https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1864248345234985211 While GUR has not commented on these claims, it has gone after Russians in Syria before, [reportedly striking]() one of its bases in the war-torn country back in July. Last year, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov vowed to us that his directorate would kill Russian "military criminals" wherever they are. “...anywhere across the world we will be seeking and hunting down Russian military criminals, and sooner or later that time will come whenever they are,” [he told us in an exclusive interview](). “That is why we shouldn’t be surprised when in any territory, something happens to Russian military criminals.” ![Ukrainian Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, commander of the Defense Intelligence Directorate, sat down for an exclusive interview with The War Zone.]() *Ukrainian Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, commander of the Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR), told us Ukraine will hunt Russian military personnel anywhere in the world. (Howard Altman) Howard Altman* [Speaking to reporters in Brussels on Wednesday](), U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the alliance is finalizing plans to provide Ukraine with $50 billion in frozen Russian assets. "Making sure that it has the resources it needs to sustain its economy and to sustain its defense – we’ve now managed...to get $50 billion to Ukraine that will be going out the door in the coming weeks, both from the United States and Europe," he said. "And that will carry Ukraine for some time into next year." https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1864367917820743981 On Tuesday, Zelensky called for “major reinforcement” of sectors in eastern Ukraine of the 1,000-km (600-mile) front line, where Russian forces have made consistent gains in recent months, [*Reuters* reported](). Zelensky issued his appeal as Russia's Defence Ministry said its troops had captured frontline villages in the east and south. https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1864181153793483102 Zelensky's plea for reinforcements comes amid a record-breaking number of Ukrainian troop desertions. "More Ukrainian soldiers have deserted in the first 10 months of this year than in the previous two years of the war, highlighting Kyiv’s struggle to replenish its frontline ranks as Russia captures more territory in eastern Ukraine," [the *Financial Times* reported](). "In a standout case in late October, hundreds of infantry serving in Ukraine’s 123 Brigade abandoned their positions in the eastern town of Vuhledar. They returned to their homes in the Mykolayiv region where some staged a rare public protest, demanding more weapons and training..." https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1863135134364639462 Meanwhile, Russia is cracking down on military-aged men. Moscow residents failing to show up at military registration and enlistment offices after receiving summonses are getting SMS notifications telling them they are banned from leaving Russia among other restrictions, [according to the independent investigative website *Important Stories*. ]()The messages say that "temporary measures" have been imposed on conscripts according to amendments to Russia's law on military duty. A ban on driving and registering vehicles, registering and selling real estate, receiving loans, and registering as a self-employed individual or entrepreneurs are other potential penalties. https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1862893380256051240 While President-elect Donald Trump has yet to reveal details of his oft-repeated plan to quickly end the war, his advisors are publicly and privately floating proposals that would cede large parts of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future, [according to a *Reuters* analysis]() of their statements and interviews with several people close to the U.S. president-elect. The proposals “by three key advisers, including Trump's incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, share some elements, including taking NATO membership for Ukraine off the table,” *Reuters* explained. “Trump's advisers would try forcing Moscow and Kyiv into negotiations with carrots and sticks, including halting military aid to Kyiv unless it agrees to talk but boosting assistance if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses.” Such plans, however, may be difficult to achieve given headwinds it will face from both sides. https://twitter.com/ukrreview/status/1864237164961133002?s=12 In order to suss out Trump's plans and pitch Ukraine's own interests, one of Zelensky's top advisors is in the U.S. to visit members of Trump's team, according to Ukrainian media, citing the country's foreign minister on Wednesday. Ukraine's presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak was already in the U.S., Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha told reporters in Brussels, news agency *Interfax Ukraine* reported, [according to *Reuters*](). "This contact at the level of the head of the (president's) office is very important for establishing, among other things, relations with representatives of the new administration,” Sybiha said. Yermak will be accompanied by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko, [the *New Voice of Ukraine* media outlet reported](). “The primary goal of this trip is to meet with Trump associates, individuals from the entourage of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump," a source told the publication. https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1864233934843990198 NATO's top leader is also urging Trump to stick with Ukraine. [In an interview with the *Financial Times*](), NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned Trump of the serious threat posed by China, Iran, and North Korea if Ukraine is forced to sign a peace agreement on Russia’s terms. “Rutte emphasized that deepening ties between U.S. adversaries endangered America as he made a pitch to the president-elect to stick with NATO and continue to support Ukraine,” the publication reported. Rutte noted the risks from Russia supplying missile technology to North Korea and cash to Iran. In an apparent reference to Taiwan, he said that Chinese President Xi Jinping “might get thoughts about something else in the future if there is not a good deal \[for Ukraine\].” “We cannot have a situation where we have \[North Korean leader\] Kim Jong Un and the Russian leader and Xi Jinping and Iran high-fiving because we came to a deal which is not good for Ukraine, because long-term that will be a dire security threat not only to Europe but also to the U.S.,” Rutte told the *FT* in his first interview as head of the western military alliance. https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1864222782516613413 During a conference ahead of NATO's foreign ministers meeting this week, Rutte argued that Ukraine needs to be put in a “position of strength” instead of being pushed toward peace talks. “I would argue, let’s not have all these discussions step by step on what a peace process might look like,” [Rutte said ]()at the first full gathering of the group since Trump's victory. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1864034631990853663 A good indicator of Putin's intentions for the ongoing war is the budget he just signed into law. It includes record-breaking defense allocation, setting aside almost a third of his government’s total spending as the nearly three-year-old war in Ukraine drains resources from both sides. The budget for 2025, which was published Sunday, allocates about $126 billion (13.5 trillion rubles) to national defense – amounting to 32.5% of government spending, [according to *CNN*](). The defense budget is about $28 billion (three trillion rubles) higher than the previous record set this year. https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1863468916527284724 Even as the war rages on, Putin is at least eyeing an endgame. The Kremlin has begun constructing a “narrative of victory” in Ukraine with Russia’s regional officials ahead of legislative elections next year, [the *Kommersant* business daily reported Monday](), citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter. Any outcome of the so-called special military operation should be considered a victory, the officials were reportedly told. “The presidential administration proceeds from the assumption that the special military operation will end and we should be ready,” *Kommersant* quoted one of its sources who spoke after a four-day seminar with deputy governors last week. https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1863547661724340526 The increasing pro-Russian leaning of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and the ongoing tumult there is not just bad for Ukraine, Zelensky said. "What is happening in Georgia is not just a challenge for one nation or our region," the Ukrainian president said in his nightly message. "The current Georgian government is pushing the country into clear dependence on Russia. It’s disgraceful to see the steps they are taking against their own people." https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1864384163538956439 Ukraine’s recently developed Palianytsia long-range jet-powered[ drone]() has entered serial production, Umerov announced in an op-ed on Dec. 4. "A new start-up implemented the Palianytsia missile project, which has already entered serial production thanks to the support of the Defense Ministry," [Umerov wrote in the *LB.UA* outlet](). That drone was used against a military target Crimea for the first time in October,[ *Ukrainian Pravda* reported](). Umerov also noted that the “serial production” of R-360[ Neptune ground-launched cruise missiles]() “was restored and[ scaled.]() Modified missiles are now capable of hitting targets at a greater range.” The defense minister did not specify the new range. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1864262286598197248?s=12 Ukraine will need tens of thousands of uncrewed robotic ground vehicles in 2025 to shuttle ammunition and supplies to infantry in the trenches and evacuate wounded soldiers, [Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told *Reuters*](). The buggy-like vehicles, an example of how technology is transforming trench warfare in Ukraine, would spare troops from operating in areas near the front where Russian shelling and drones are rife. https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1863634970830348323 A Ukrainian defense company has unveiled the large-scale production of its Ratel S unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), robotic platforms designed for tactical operations against Russian forces, [the Ukrainian *Defense Blog* reported](). The UGVs are being used for a variety of purposes, including remote mining and kamikaze strike missions. “The Ratel S kamikaze variant can carry up to 35 kilograms of payload, while the mine-laying model is equipped to deliver two anti-tank mines,” *Defense Blog* explained. “Both versions are designed for tactical efficiency, with a top speed of 22 km/h and a range of up to 6 kilometers.” https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1863516051121619083 The Ukrainian "Peaky Blinders" drone unit repelled a Russian attack on the village of Maksymivka, south of Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast. The Russians tried to encircle the Ukrainian forces. The convoy, led by a turtle tank with an excavator blade clearing the path, was destroyed. The Russians reportedly lost two tanks, two IFVs and many troops in the battle. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1863870245774975202 You can watch the moment the crew of a Ukrainian mobile air defense unit shot down a Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drone at near point-blank range with a twin-barrel 23mm ZU-23-2 autocannon. https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1863342884080197980 Russia too is suffering from manpower shortages. According to ex-Wagner commander and milblogger Andrey Medvedev, an officer serving with the Russian Army's Central Military district complained about having to turn untrained troops into front-line motorized assault units. "Our division command decided to take extreme measures that defy common sense,” the officer wrote. “Namely, to form assault groups and reserves from among specialists from other units that do not belong to motorized rifle and assault units It is impossible to retrain personnel as stormtroopers at a training ground in a week, with subsequent use of hastily formed units, and to liberate (occupy) strategically important heights in the area of ​​responsibility." https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1863658531599102365 As part of a major effort to stop [Ukraine's failed 2023 counteroffensive](), the Russians built a massive series of trenches, bunkers, and mine fields around the country, especially in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. It was known as the Surovikin Line and named for Russian Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who developed that defensive plan. He was [since fired]() after [news broke]() that he was aware of the late Wagner leader [Yevgeny Prigozhin’s putative pitch]() ahead of time. You can see one of the dugouts built for that effort in the following video. https://twitter.com/Vijesti11111/status/1861577904938684655 There are unconfirmed claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the Dyagilevo Airbase in Russia’s Ryazan region, about 300 miles from the border. The Russian *Astra* news channel posted a video it claimed showed the moment of impact of an attack at or near the base. It looks like it came from a security camera and shows a bright flash at the end, making it hard to confirm what was actually seen. [Ryazan Governor Pavel Malkov claimed on Telegram]() that a drone was downed over the region by Russian defense forces. “At the crash site of the downed UAV in the Korablinsky district, windows in four nearby houses were damaged,” he stated. “There were no casualties.” The Korablinsky district lies roughly 60 kilometers (around 40 miles) south of the regional center, Ryazan, [the *Kyiv Independent* noted](). The Dyagilevo airbase “reportedly hosts the 43rd Center for Combat Training with Tu-22M3, Tu-95MS, Tu-134UBL, and An-26 aircraft, as well as Il-78 tanker planes and a repair plant,” the publication explained. A Ukrainian drone is said to have struck the airbase in December 2022,[ killing and injuring several soldiers](). The military facility was allegedly[ targeted again in July 2024](). https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/status/1864180471640277074 Russians displayed one of their [fiber-optic-controlled first-person view (FPV)]() drones with a 10.5 km (6.5 miles) coil. Both sides are now using these drones. They are incapable of having their signal to operators jammed by electronic warfare equipment or degraded by terrain because their datalink is hardwired. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1864073790285631961 North Korean troops sent to Russia to help fight Ukraine are experiencing such severe food shortages that one of Moscow’s generals was dispatched to the Kursk front, GUR claimed. “Among the servicemen of the North Korean army stationed in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, dissatisfaction has grown due to the insufficient amount of food provided,” GUR suggested on Telegram. “To solve the problem with hungry North Koreans, Russia sent Major General Mevlyutov, the deputy commander for resource provision of the Leningrad Military District, to the Kursk fields.” Mevlyutov immediately ordered the issuance of individual rations from the food reserves of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigades to the North Korean troops, according to GUR. The head of that directorate, Budanov, told us that Pyongyang has sent 12,000 troops, who are fighting in Kursk. “Military personnel from the 92nd and 94th Special Forces Brigades of the North Korean Army are transferred to the operational subordination of the units of the Russian Army participating in hostilities in the Kursk Region,” GUR stated on Wednesday. “In particular - the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 810th Separate Marine Infantry Brigade, and the above-mentioned 11th Infantry Division.” https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr/status/1864241574080631058?s=12 Zelensky this week confirmed that 12,000 North Koreans are in Kursk, adding that some have been killed and injured. "Putin doesn’t want to lose the support of society," he said. "So, instead of using Russians as cannon fodder, it will be North Korean soldiers as cannon fodder." https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1863522013463118084 Dniprorudne City Mayor Yevgeny Matveev - kidnapped by Russians in March 2022 - died in captivity, according to Zaporizhzhia Governor Ivan Fedorov. “The Russians captured Dniprorudne in the Zaporizhzhia region at the end of February 2022,” [Federov said on Telegram](). “And later, they also captured the mayor - Yevgeny Matveev. He was held captive by the occupiers for two years and eight months and was tortured. During the last exchange, the body was returned to Ukraine.” https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1864238441862512667?s=12 And finally, you can watch a real-life version of [The Hurt Locker]() in the following video, which shows Ukrainian sappers trying to disarm an unexploded warhead from Kh-101 cruise missile stuck inside a crater. https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1864376808545636711 That's it for now. *Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com* ## Author Howard is a Senior Staff Writer for *TWZ*. He writes frequently about conflict, focusing heavily on the Middle East and Ukraine, and interviews with military and intelligence officials and industry leaders from around the globe. He lives near Tampa, Florida, home of U.S. Central Command, U.S. Special Operations Command. ### Author social links [Twitter]() [LinkedIn]()