--- title: "‘Davidson Window’ Admiral Hopes He Was Wrong On China’s Ability To Take Taiwan By 2027" date: "2026-11-15" modified: "2026-11-15" authors: - name: "Howard Altman" job_title: "Senior Staff Writer" link: "https://www.twz.com/authors/howard-altman.md" url: "https://www.twz.com/news-features/davidson-window-admiral-hopes-he-was-wrong-on-chinas-ability-to-take-taiwan-by-2027" categories: - "Around The Globe" - "China" - "Indo-Pacific" - "Navies" - "News & Features" - "Sea" - "Taiwan" - "U.S. Navy" --- # ‘Davidson Window’ Admiral Hopes He Was Wrong On China’s Ability To Take Taiwan By 2027 ![SHANDONG PENINSULA, CHINA - AUGUST 24: (CHINA OUT) An amphibious tank of Chinese People's Liberation Army lands a beach during the third phase of the Sino-Russian "Peace Mission 2005" joint military exercise on August 24, 2005 near Shandong Peninsula, China. More than 7,000 Chinese troops and 1,800 Russians with military vessels, fighter jets and amphibious tanks took part in the live ammunition combat practice, according to state media. (Photo by China Photos/Getty Images)]() *China Photos* The man whose congressional testimony five years ago led to what’s known as the “Davidson Window” for China being capable of launching a credible invasion of Taiwan by 2027 is offering some insights into what he is thinking now that the date is drawing near. Philip Davidson - the admiral who led U.S. forces in the Pacific at the time - said on a podcast released Friday that several developments have taken place since he retired in 2021 that could change his projection. However, the former commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (now Pacific Command or PACOM) told the *[Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?]()* podcast he still sees reasons for concern. In particular, he urged the U.S. to deliver military aid to Taiwan before an invasion to better deter China from acting. ![]() *Chinese forces practice a beach landing. (PLA)* Davidson’s statements were delivered as China has been steadily increasing [military exercises around Taiwan](), which it considers a breakaway province that it will someday bring it back under its control. Before getting into what Davidson told podcasters Ray Powell, founder and executive director of the [SeaLight Foundation](), and Jim Carouso, a senior advisor at [BowerGroupAsia](), let’s recall what [Davidson told the Senate Armed Services Committee]() on March 9, 2021. “I worry that they are accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States, and our leadership role in the rules-based international order, which they have long said that they want to do that by 2050, I am worried about them moving that target closer,” Davidson said of China. “Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before then, and I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years.” ![]() *Philip Davidson when he was a Navy admiral and commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. (USN)* The assessment of the so-called "Davidson Window" was backed two years later by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). “President Xi has instructed the PLA \[People’s Liberation Army\], the Chinese military leadership, to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan,” [then-CIA Director Bill Burns stated](). ### What’s Changed Since Then? “At the heart of it, I'm hoping to be wrong,” said Davidson about his congressional testimony. “If I'm wrong, that means the things we recommended from Indo-Pacific Command, the things that the United States government and other governments have undertaken over the last seven years, have been effective. And there hasn't been war.” “I advocated for, just in the military sense, five capability sets - investment guidelines that I thought were important to do,” explained Davidson, now on the [board of directors at defense contractor AV](). “The United States needed to rethink its force posture and design in the region, in the Indo-Pacific - where we are, how we deployed, what we rotated through, what the capabilities of those sets were. We also needed more diverse and a larger set of joint force fires, meaning offensive fires, not just from the sea, but from land and air domain.” “You're certainly seeing that play out right now, with deployments and missile deployments, with [Marine formations](), [Army formations in the Philippines]() and along the First Island Chain,” the admiral added. “That has been a help.” ![Mid-Range Capability (MRC) Launcher from Charlie Battery, 5th Battalion, 3rd Field Artillery Regiment, Long Range Fires Battalion, 1st Multi-Domain Task Force arrives as part of the capability’s first deployment into theater on Northern Luzon, Philippines, April 8, 2024. The MRC deployment aims to enhance Philippine maritime defense capabilities, while bolstering interoperability and readiness within the U.S.-Philippine Alliance.]() *Mid-Range Capability (MRC) Launcher from Charlie Battery, 5th Battalion, 3rd Field Artillery Regiment, Long Range Fires Battalion, 1st Multi-Domain Task Force arrives as part of the capability’s first deployment into theater on Northern Luzon, Philippines, April 8, 2024. The MRC deployment aims to enhance Philippine maritime defense capabilities, while bolstering interoperability and readiness within the U.S.-Philippine Alliance. (U.S. Army) U.S. Army* In addition, Davidson noted that the U.S. “needed to improve our exercises, our experimentation, and our innovation in the region. We have deepened the relationship with Japan and Australia in the [Keen series of exercises]() over the last five years, and in a way that was kind of unheard of in my day, which I think is a profound improvement.” The Keen Sword training exercise occurred last month and saw about “45,000 Japan Self-Defense Force, 11,000 U.S. service members and forces from Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand and the Philippines...participating alongside observers from the Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom,” according to the U.S. Navy. ![A Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Landing Craft Air Cushion (LCAC) hovercraft assigned to Amphibious Warfare Squadron One, Amphibious and Mine Warfare Group, coasts into the harbor at Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, Oct. 28, 2026.  Keen Sword is a routine, biennial bilateral field training exercise with multinational participation, designed to increase readiness and interoperability between the U.S. military and Japan Self-Defense Forces while strengthening the ironclad U.S.-Japan Alliance. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Donald Dugger)]() *A Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Landing Craft Air Cushion (LCAC) hovercraft assigned to Amphibious Warfare Squadron One, Amphibious and Mine Warfare Group, coasts into the harbor at Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, Oct. 28, 2026, during Keen Sword. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Donald Dugger) Lance Cpl. Donald Dugger* Japan taking a more assertive security posture toward China has been a huge change from when he was in command, Davidson noted. “Japan absolutely has come forward, they reissued their national security strategy in December of \[2022\], and there were a number of alliance announcements made in January of \[2023\],” he explained. The Japanese doubled their investment in defense from 1% to 2% of its GDP, Davidson highlighted. Japan also “established space \[and\] cyber forces, instilled the cybersecurity principles and laws that would be necessary to deepen our relationship in a classified way. And this is almost unknown to anybody in America. Completely redistributed and reset their ground formations and air formations in the Southwest Island chain, between Okinawa and along the Ryukyu chain.” “Most importantly, they identified China as the strategic threat in the region,” Davidson proffered. “And in the alliance announcement in January of \[2023\] with us, said that our interests have converged in this regard.” ![KOMATSU, JAPAN - SEPTEMBER 26: An F-15 fighter jet performs a flight display during the Komatsu Air Festival hosted by the Japan Air Self-Defense Force at Komatsu Base on September 26, 2026 in Komatsu, Japan. The event opened the base to the public featuring aerial demonstrations and static displays. (Photo by Zhang Hui/VCG via Getty Images)]() *A Japan Air Self-Defense Force F-15 fighter performs during the Komatsu Air Festival on September 26, 2026 in Komatsu, Japan. (Photo by Zhang Hui/VCG via Getty Images) VCG* Taiwan too has made some needed improvements in its approach to defending itself since he retired, Davidson explained. “You have to be encouraged by Taiwan's actions taken since then,” he stated. “They [expanded the conscription timeline]() from just a few months to a year of service. They have done an enormous amount of work in their national emergency preparedness realm.” Davidson also credited Adm. Lee Hsi-min, chief of the Taiwanese Armed Forces general staff from 2017 to 2019, for developing the Overall Defense Concept (ODC). Lee envisioned a mix of mines, [uncrewed aerial systems]() (UAS), [uncrewed surface vehicles]() (USVs), uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs), crewed coastal defense boats, land-based mobile short- and medium-range precision munitions, precision-guided multiple launch rocket systems, man portable air defense systems (MANPADS), anti-armor rocket systems and electronic warfare measures to counter the PLA’s overwhelming advantages in aviation and naval assets and long-range fires. ![]() *Taiwan sits about 130 miles east of China. (Google Earth)* “He said, ‘We really have to develop the kind of asymmetric capabilities that help round out our lack of capacity vis-a-vis its relationship with the People's Republic of China, and make sure that we have a strategic and operational design that can kill in the littoral and along the landing beaches and things like that,'” Davidson pointed out. “They've been getting after autonomy. They've been getting after robotics and drones and sensing.” ![Taiwan has revealed a new drone boat, or uncrewed surface vessel (USV), the Endeavor Manta, said to be the first of its kind for the Republic of China Navy (ROCN).]() *In 2025, Taiwan revealed a new drone boat, or uncrewed surface vessel (USV), the Endeavor Manta, said to be the first of its kind for the Republic of China Navy (ROCN).* However, [as we have frequently pointed out](), Taiwan is still far behind where it needs to be in many of these areas, but [especially uncrewed systems](). In addition, Davidson said growing relations with the Philippines and Australia are also helping. Australia signed the [Australia–United Kingdom–United States security partnership]() (AUKUS) in September 2021, months after Davidson retired. AUKUS calls for the United States and Britain to [share nuclear-submarine technology]() with Australia. ![]() *A rendering of the future SSN-AUKUS design. (U.K. Ministry of Defense)* “So over the span of the last six years since March 9 of 2021, you've seen a lot of change that I think has reinforced the deterrence of the West here, and I think that's important to note,” Davidson stated. ### What Still Needs To Change Despite seeing the U.S. and its allies better prepared to defend against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Davidson said he is concerned that the U.S. is not moving fast enough to provide promised military aid. “I would like to see the $14 billion in committed \[Foreign Military Sales\] to Taiwan move over there in the next few months or a year,” Davidson stated. Approval of the package, which is a major point of controversy with China, has been stalled, Taiwan’s Defense Minister [Wellington Koo said in September](). The minister’s remarks “come as concerns mount that President Donald Trump could halt arms sales to Taiwan. China has pressed Washington to halt the arms sales, most prominently during a May summit in Beijing between Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping,” [*The Associated Press* noted](). “The United States paused the $14 billion arms deal after that meeting.” The package “largely consists of [\[Patriot\] PAC-3]() and NASAMS \[[National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System]()\] air defense missiles,” [*Reuters* reported](). However, another huge factor beyond tensions with China is the U.S. supply of these air defense munitions, which has been drastically affected by the [current and recent Middle East conflicts](). Donations to Ukraine have also eaten into U.S. stocks. The lack of sufficient magazine depth is [an issue that *TWZ* has raised frequently]() for years, and especially in regard to [America’s air]() and [missile defenses](), in particular. Commitments for deliveries to 20 other nations and an overall insatiable global demand for interceptors due to numerous destabilizing events has put further strain on supply of American interceptors. All this is also straining the ability of industry to provide enough capacity. For instance, current PAC-3 MSE production “is [around]() the [baseline rate]() of 650 interceptors per year, with half the deliveries going to the United States and the rest to allies and partners,” [according to a report]() from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The Pentagon is trying to boost production. Under [a contract with the Pentagon inked in January](), Lockheed Martin is committed to raising annual Patriot output to 2,000 interceptors. ![Patriot Missile ]() *A Patriot PAC-3 interceptor (Lockheed Martin)* In addition to wanting to see the arms package pushed forward, Davidson warned about China’s information warfare capabilities. “The one thing that has really jumped out at me that was a problem, certainly, when I was the Indo-Pacific commander, but it's worse now, is the information environment,” Davidson posited. “China is working to undermine the democratic processes in Taiwan. They're working to undermine any U.S. citizens' confidence in business leadership and political leadership and military leadership. They're exploiting accidents or difficulties that someone might be having to flood social networks, and it's happening not just from China, but from Russia and Iran and independent actors elsewhere. “ “It’s really dangerous,” the former commander emphasized. “There's been some estimations that some of the activity from bots and from propaganda players is accounting for up to 70% of the commentary in social media threads here and there, and that's a much more difficult place to be.” Davidson said the U.S. needs to step up its own information warfare capabilities. “I think we should be putting as much effort into \[the information domain\] as we've been putting into drones and autonomy and things like that in this day and age,” Davidson stated. ![]() *Chinese hovercraft land on a beach during training. (PLAN)* Davidson did not address some other glaring issues in regard to China's potential seizure of Taiwan. The biggest being will the U.S. actually respond militarily if a major Chinese exercise suddenly became an actual invasion operation? Would there even be enough time and what about China's anti-access capabilities that could keep much of America's combat power at bay during the early stages of such a conflict? Would there even be support for such an intervention operation domestically, especially considering it could be very bloody and it would surely manifest itself here at home? Then, as we mentioned in the piece, there are many areas where Taiwan seems to be moving far too slowly while China's military force continues to balloon on nearly all fronts. Regardless, it's nice to hear from the man who inadvertantly gave birth to the "Davidson Window" now that this ominous window of vulnerability he predicted a half decade is cracking open. *Contact the author: howard@twz.com* ## Author Howard is a Senior Staff Writer for *TWZ*. He writes frequently about conflict, focusing heavily on the Middle East and Ukraine, and interviews with military and intelligence officials and industry leaders from around the globe. He lives near Tampa, Florida, home of U.S. Central Command, U.S. Special Operations Command. ### Author social links [Twitter]() [LinkedIn]() ## More - [Pentagon Releases Video Of Chinese J-11 Fighter Making ‘Unsafe Intercept’ On U.S. Jet]() - [Ohio Class Guided Missile Submarine Deployed Underwater Drones On Award Winning Secret Missions]() - [Marine-Moving Medium Landing Ship Critical To China Fight Put On Hold Again By Navy]() - [China’s “Punishment” Drills Around Taiwan: Day One]() - [Indonesian Fisherman Caught What Appears To Be A Chinese Underwater Drone]() - [USS Connecticut Smashed Into A Seamount, May Have Ripped Off Sonar Dome]() - [Our Best Look Yet At China’s J-20A Fighter With WS-15 Engines ]() - [U.S. Coast Guard Has A Working Heavy Icebreaker Again]()